***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 12.0 9.6 22.3 53.5 16.1 21.2 17.5 25.4 49.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 11.8 9.0 21.9 56.2 17.8 24.6 21.8 28.5 40.4 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 22.8 19.9 23.6 55.6 18.7 22.5 28.7 36.5 54.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 23.5 20.5 24.3 52.1 15.2 21.0 29.3 35.8 46.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 24.3 18.7 26.1 54.4 15.4 20.8 33.4 40.8 47.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 18.1 16.5 25.7 56.1 16.9 22.2 24.3 29.2 38.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 15.0 9.4 21.4 55.5 16.4 24.3 19.5 33.4 42.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 31.9 23.7 28.0 55.7 14.9 21.1 43.4 49.2 61.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 17.0 15.7 27.7 56.4 17.3 21.4 20.5 27.3 43.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 22.1 17.3 29.5 57.4 15.3 21.7 24.2 35.0 40.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 21.9 18.3 25.2 56.5 15.2 21.9 28.2 33.6 46.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 17.2 12.1 24.1 54.9 14.4 21.3 29.8 33.6 42.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 22.4 19.2 25.4 56.1 15.1 22.0 28.4 34.3 44.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 27.5 21.4 30.4 59.2 16.3 23.0 36.6 50.5 57.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 16.3 11.5 21.7 49.6 17.0 21.3 14.0 35.7 49.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 18.0 12.6 24.0 55.5 14.4 21.8 23.4 37.5 46.4 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 12.3 14.1 21.3 56.1 20.2 24.7 19.5 27.0 40.3 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 19.4 14.0 32.2 57.4 15.3 21.4 19.6 31.7 40.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 17.5 13.6 22.7 57.0 18.2 24.5 18.9 38.9 48.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 22.5 16.0 35.0 53.8 14.8 19.7 31.7 44.6 56.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 20.6 16.8 25.3 55.0 16.3 21.1 22.9 34.4 44.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 14.8 14.0 23.3 57.7 20.3 25.1 20.0 34.1 46.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 15.8 12.4 24.6 57.9 17.4 23.8 21.6 30.5 41.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 26.5 21.5 29.0 57.8 15.6 22.4 29.2 40.2 52.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 22.5 17.8 25.7 52.5 16.9 20.4 23.7 40.4 55.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 16.5 12.8 23.9 53.8 14.6 21.4 19.1 28.1 41.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 16.7 11.4 24.5 53.4 17.8 21.1 20.0 39.8 55.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 14.5 10.9 23.1 51.9 15.1 21.4 21.0 30.9 41.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 34.8 28.0 33.8 56.6 14.5 20.9 42.0 50.3 69.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 15.7 12.3 22.0 55.6 17.8 23.8 16.0 33.4 43.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------