***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 2.3 1.5 9.4 105.7 64.1 52.5 0.1 1.2 1.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 2.8 3.0 9.2 111.4 63.1 53.6 0.3 1.1 3.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 3.0 3.1 9.9 110.4 64.5 52.6 0.7 1.5 3.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.5 10.8 103.2 62.4 50.4 2.5 3.8 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.5 5.5 11.1 105.7 65.0 51.6 1.4 3.1 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 0.7 3.1 11.3 102.5 66.3 51.6 0.5 1.4 2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.2 8.7 105.4 62.6 52.8 0.3 0.9 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.2 12.4 108.9 63.5 54.3 1.6 3.5 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 0.9 4.1 11.4 106.5 66.4 51.9 0.7 2.0 4.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 1.9 6.4 12.6 110.1 64.9 53.8 0.5 3.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 3.8 4.9 10.7 108.0 65.7 53.4 0.4 2.3 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.7 10.6 106.7 65.2 54.1 0.5 2.0 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 0.9 5.1 11.2 108.6 67.8 54.1 0.9 1.7 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 1.8 9.4 13.3 121.4 67.2 54.8 1.3 3.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 3.2 2.8 9.9 97.1 61.9 48.4 0.5 1.5 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 0.8 4.6 10.3 106.4 67.2 52.7 0.8 1.6 4.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 2.8 3.1 9.0 112.1 63.8 53.7 0.4 1.5 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.4 5.3 14.0 113.0 64.5 54.5 1.5 2.8 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 0.6 3.2 9.7 116.1 65.6 54.0 0.3 1.2 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.7 15.9 108.0 59.9 53.0 1.4 3.3 5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 1.3 3.2 10.3 103.0 63.5 50.5 1.1 2.7 3.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 2.5 3.9 10.3 123.4 68.4 55.8 0.1 1.4 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 0.5 4.1 10.9 121.0 67.7 54.2 0.3 0.9 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.0 6.7 12.6 115.2 65.6 54.0 1.4 3.8 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 3.2 4.0 11.5 111.1 66.5 53.8 0.5 1.8 4.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 2.5 4.0 11.1 110.1 66.0 54.3 0.6 1.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 2.6 3.0 10.7 110.6 65.0 54.4 0.3 1.7 3.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 2.9 3.6 10.2 99.7 63.1 49.0 0.8 1.8 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.9 15.1 114.5 64.4 55.0 2.8 5.6 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 0.5 1.7 9.2 110.4 62.5 53.4 0.3 1.1 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------