***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.9 8.4 78.8 53.3 43.5 1.5 4.6 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.5 3.8 8.6 83.3 51.4 42.6 1.4 3.8 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.7 8.0 8.7 80.3 52.6 41.5 5.0 7.4 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.6 8.0 8.2 71.2 50.4 39.7 3.5 7.9 10.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.0 6.2 9.1 76.4 50.1 40.7 3.2 6.2 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.2 6.2 9.0 79.6 54.4 44.1 1.2 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.7 8.6 85.1 53.2 44.1 2.5 3.7 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 3.6 9.9 9.6 74.5 51.4 40.9 3.9 9.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.2 6.3 9.7 77.4 50.9 41.0 1.5 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 1.9 5.9 10.2 78.2 51.2 41.0 0.9 5.6 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.6 5.6 8.9 79.6 52.9 41.7 1.0 4.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 1.4 4.4 8.2 74.7 52.9 41.2 1.3 4.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.2 6.3 8.9 79.7 56.6 44.2 2.0 5.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.5 10.6 10.7 80.4 49.9 39.9 6.5 10.6 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.9 6.9 64.1 47.3 38.6 0.9 4.3 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.6 7.3 8.4 78.7 55.7 42.7 1.1 6.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.7 4.0 8.4 83.0 52.3 41.9 1.2 3.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 2.2 6.1 11.1 77.2 51.3 39.8 1.5 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.3 8.7 82.8 51.8 41.9 3.6 7.1 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 2.3 7.2 12.7 73.5 51.7 40.4 2.4 7.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.0 9.0 77.1 50.4 41.2 2.9 6.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.0 4.8 8.8 82.1 51.5 41.0 1.9 4.8 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.7 9.0 81.6 51.6 40.9 2.7 7.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.1 9.9 10.1 78.3 49.5 39.4 4.2 10.0 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.5 9.1 73.9 51.0 41.6 4.3 7.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 1.5 5.2 8.4 75.9 53.5 42.1 1.5 4.4 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.8 9.1 78.3 53.4 43.8 2.3 5.7 8.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 0.9 2.3 7.7 70.3 50.1 39.8 0.4 2.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 2.6 7.2 11.9 75.5 51.3 39.8 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.2 8.6 82.8 53.8 43.2 2.8 4.0 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------