***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 2.1 1.2 3.5 34.9 21.0 20.0 3.9 10.7 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 1.2 1.5 3.0 33.1 25.4 20.2 3.7 7.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 3.5 2.9 3.8 36.9 22.8 19.4 7.2 12.4 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 2.6 6.0 3.8 33.1 27.1 21.5 6.7 11.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 3.6 4.9 4.5 36.8 25.6 20.8 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 3.1 3.0 4.5 36.4 25.3 21.8 4.2 7.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 1.9 2.2 3.0 33.1 25.2 20.4 3.6 9.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 7.1 6.5 4.8 35.7 19.4 20.4 7.3 10.9 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 2.4 2.1 5.2 41.1 26.1 22.4 4.0 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 2.5 1.4 5.3 39.3 22.2 21.3 5.2 9.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 3.3 4.6 4.4 38.1 24.8 22.4 8.3 9.9 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 3.5 5.0 4.2 36.0 22.5 21.0 6.9 9.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 3.5 2.0 4.3 35.3 21.4 21.4 4.5 10.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 4.2 4.4 5.0 38.4 21.7 19.9 7.9 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 1.7 2.0 3.7 34.9 31.5 23.0 2.0 7.9 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 2.2 2.6 4.2 37.1 24.9 21.6 5.3 10.0 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 2.1 3.1 3.0 32.4 27.2 20.3 4.1 8.1 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 1.8 1.3 5.7 38.6 18.0 19.8 4.2 7.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 1.6 2.5 3.2 33.8 23.3 19.4 4.9 6.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 3.1 2.0 5.6 31.8 15.8 18.2 6.8 9.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 3.3 2.9 4.6 40.7 24.1 22.2 5.0 9.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 1.7 1.5 3.1 31.7 23.3 18.4 3.7 6.0 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 2.4 1.8 3.6 35.4 21.7 18.1 2.5 7.1 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 3.4 2.6 5.0 39.4 21.7 20.2 8.3 9.8 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 2.6 2.3 3.7 30.7 21.7 17.9 6.2 11.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 2.7 3.6 3.7 31.7 21.4 19.7 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 1.9 1.3 3.5 31.5 20.6 18.4 7.1 10.1 13.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 2.3 3.2 3.9 35.9 30.2 23.4 3.4 7.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 5.7 4.7 5.7 35.7 16.3 18.6 8.3 13.6 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 1.2 1.9 3.1 33.5 24.6 19.6 3.3 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------