***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 0.6 0.4 1.1 9.3 13.4 11.8 2.3 4.8 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 1.2 1.1 1.1 9.7 13.4 12.5 6.1 9.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 2.8 0.6 1.2 9.8 10.1 8.9 6.8 9.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 3.2 1.8 1.5 11.4 11.8 11.2 5.5 9.3 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 2.1 1.3 1.4 10.7 10.2 10.4 8.0 13.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 1.6 0.2 0.9 8.5 8.0 9.2 5.2 10.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 1.0 0.7 1.0 9.5 13.6 12.6 4.5 7.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 6.7 2.1 1.1 9.0 10.1 8.9 11.4 15.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 1.4 0.5 1.4 10.7 11.4 11.0 4.9 7.8 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 2.4 1.1 1.4 10.3 10.9 10.2 4.9 10.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 98 2 0 100 2.6 1.5 1.2 10.3 12.0 11.0 6.9 9.7 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 1.7 0.3 1.0 9.1 10.4 9.5 6.1 9.1 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 1.8 0.2 1.1 9.0 8.6 9.1 6.4 7.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 4.6 1.6 1.4 9.9 8.6 7.8 8.5 12.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 0.9 0.4 1.2 9.9 13.2 11.6 1.9 6.4 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 99 1 0 100 2.6 0.8 1.2 9.9 10.2 9.7 5.4 9.1 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 0.4 0.2 1.0 9.3 11.6 11.3 5.7 8.8 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 98 2 0 100 1.9 0.6 1.3 8.9 8.8 7.7 3.9 8.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 99 1 0 100 1.3 0.6 1.1 9.6 11.3 10.7 6.0 10.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 3.0 1.2 0.9 5.8 6.7 4.9 5.8 12.1 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 1.2 0.9 1.4 10.8 10.9 10.7 8.2 9.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 1.8 1.0 1.0 8.9 8.9 8.9 5.3 9.0 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 1.2 0.5 1.1 9.3 6.2 6.9 5.7 7.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 2.0 0.7 1.4 10.1 8.7 8.4 6.1 8.4 15.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 1.7 0.7 1.5 10.4 9.0 9.8 4.6 9.5 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 1.2 0.2 0.6 5.4 8.2 6.6 5.6 11.2 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 1.2 1.0 1.2 9.2 10.6 10.6 3.2 7.6 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 1.2 0.6 1.3 10.7 11.5 10.5 3.3 7.1 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 4.7 0.9 1.1 7.8 7.5 6.4 12.4 14.9 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 1.2 0.7 1.1 9.4 13.0 12.0 5.1 8.0 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------