***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 6.2 7.6 5.0 2.6 83.7 78.7 2.1 3.9 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 5.7 6.3 4.9 2.7 81.4 78.3 1.5 3.7 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 7.3 8.1 5.1 2.6 80.1 77.5 3.8 5.1 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 2.6 3.8 3.5 3.4 91.8 86.7 -1.0 0.7 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 7.0 8.5 4.0 3.1 89.3 83.6 2.8 4.6 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 6.3 8.0 3.6 3.2 90.4 83.6 2.7 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 5.4 5.9 4.8 2.7 82.3 78.4 1.2 3.6 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 1.0 1.4 4.1 3.3 90.7 86.0 -1.5 0.0 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 7.8 8.9 4.8 3.0 85.9 82.1 3.8 5.7 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 6.7 7.9 4.5 3.2 88.3 83.6 2.8 4.3 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 7.2 8.8 4.1 3.1 90.0 84.8 3.0 4.9 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 7.5 8.4 4.1 3.1 89.4 85.1 3.8 5.5 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 6.7 8.3 3.8 3.0 88.7 83.6 3.0 4.5 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 7.8 8.5 5.2 2.8 84.5 79.4 3.2 5.8 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 6.8 9.0 4.3 3.7 94.7 90.0 1.9 3.6 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 7.5 9.4 3.8 3.1 89.6 84.4 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 5.2 6.0 4.8 2.7 81.8 78.7 1.2 3.0 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 4.4 5.4 4.5 3.2 87.6 83.1 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 6.3 7.0 5.1 2.7 80.5 77.9 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 3.4 5.4 3.6 3.6 92.7 87.4 0.0 1.8 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 7.1 8.5 5.0 2.8 84.5 80.1 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 6.0 6.6 4.9 2.7 79.9 77.9 2.1 3.9 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 5.9 6.5 5.2 2.7 80.0 77.7 2.5 4.2 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 8.0 9.0 5.1 2.8 83.5 79.7 4.2 5.9 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 6.2 7.0 4.1 3.0 88.2 83.4 2.4 3.3 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 5.9 7.1 3.6 3.1 91.6 84.8 3.0 4.6 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 7.3 8.1 4.6 2.8 84.6 80.3 2.8 4.7 6.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 7.4 9.2 4.0 3.5 92.8 87.5 3.1 4.0 6.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 4.2 5.3 4.2 3.3 90.1 85.0 1.2 2.5 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 5.8 6.5 5.0 2.7 81.7 78.0 1.5 3.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------