***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.9 4.8 3.1 71.7 71.5 2.0 3.7 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 5.9 7.0 4.9 3.3 72.4 72.6 1.0 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.6 5.0 3.1 73.0 72.0 1.9 4.4 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 2.6 3.6 2.9 3.3 78.0 74.5 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 6.4 7.1 3.4 3.2 74.4 72.9 2.1 3.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 6.6 6.4 2.5 2.8 71.3 70.3 2.3 4.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 5.0 6.0 4.7 3.2 71.3 72.0 0.9 2.8 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 75.1 71.9 -1.6 0.7 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.6 8.9 4.1 3.1 73.3 71.6 2.5 4.8 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 6.7 7.4 3.5 2.9 73.9 71.5 2.0 4.1 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 7.2 8.5 3.3 3.1 76.0 73.2 2.0 4.1 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 7.1 8.2 3.2 2.9 74.2 72.2 3.3 4.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 6.8 7.0 2.7 2.8 71.7 70.6 2.2 4.4 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 8.3 8.6 4.6 3.1 71.8 71.6 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 7.0 8.2 3.2 3.4 80.3 75.7 2.2 4.2 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 7.4 8.2 2.9 3.0 75.2 72.5 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 4.8 5.8 4.8 3.3 72.2 72.6 0.7 2.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 4.1 4.5 3.4 2.8 72.3 70.3 0.7 2.0 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 6.3 7.3 5.1 3.3 73.4 72.7 0.9 3.6 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 3.5 3.7 1.8 2.7 72.6 70.0 -0.1 1.0 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 6.8 7.4 4.6 3.1 73.1 71.7 1.9 4.1 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.7 6.1 4.9 3.3 73.5 72.7 0.8 3.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 6.2 7.2 5.2 3.3 74.4 72.8 1.3 2.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 8.4 9.5 4.5 3.0 72.8 71.1 2.7 4.9 7.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 5.4 5.6 3.4 3.1 73.6 72.6 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 6.4 6.6 2.5 2.7 71.7 71.0 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 6.2 7.1 4.1 3.0 72.1 71.5 2.1 3.6 5.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 7.3 8.4 3.1 3.4 78.7 74.7 2.7 4.4 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 4.7 4.7 2.8 2.8 71.1 70.0 -0.3 2.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 5.7 6.7 4.9 3.2 72.1 72.3 0.8 3.4 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------