***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 8.1 9.9 5.6 3.1 75.7 72.8 0.1 3.2 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 7.1 8.6 5.6 3.3 76.7 74.0 0.3 2.7 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 9.0 11.0 5.8 3.2 77.8 73.3 2.7 4.2 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 4.3 6.1 3.7 3.5 80.2 75.2 -2.0 0.4 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 7.7 9.2 4.2 3.3 77.8 74.3 1.8 4.1 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 7.4 8.3 3.7 3.2 76.7 73.2 1.2 4.7 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 6.4 7.4 5.4 3.2 76.7 73.6 0.0 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.6 2.7 4.0 3.1 76.2 74.2 -2.0 -0.5 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.6 10.4 5.1 3.2 77.1 73.1 2.7 4.8 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.6 4.6 3.2 75.4 73.4 1.5 3.8 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 8.1 9.9 4.1 3.2 78.2 74.3 1.8 4.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 8.8 10.0 4.0 3.0 76.0 73.9 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 8.1 8.8 3.7 3.1 74.7 73.5 1.4 4.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 9.2 10.5 5.6 3.1 76.8 72.8 2.2 4.9 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 7.0 10.2 4.0 3.5 82.0 75.9 1.1 2.9 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 8.9 10.3 3.8 3.2 77.3 74.2 2.4 5.6 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 6.3 7.7 5.4 3.2 77.1 73.4 0.0 2.7 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 4.1 4.4 4.6 3.1 74.4 72.8 0.4 2.6 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 8.4 10.3 5.8 3.3 77.8 74.0 0.9 2.9 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 4.4 5.6 3.3 3.1 77.6 74.4 -0.9 1.9 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 8.7 10.6 5.4 3.2 77.6 73.2 2.4 4.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 7.5 9.5 5.6 3.2 77.8 73.3 0.2 2.8 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 7.0 8.7 6.0 3.3 79.2 73.8 1.7 3.1 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 9.3 11.0 5.4 3.1 76.2 72.6 3.0 5.3 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 6.7 8.6 4.3 3.3 79.5 74.4 1.2 3.5 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 7.1 7.8 3.5 3.0 75.9 73.6 2.9 4.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 8.4 9.9 5.0 3.2 77.4 73.3 2.3 4.5 7.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 8.1 11.2 3.9 3.5 81.2 75.2 1.4 3.0 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 5.6 6.3 4.1 3.1 74.5 73.2 0.8 2.9 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 7.3 8.1 5.6 3.3 76.8 73.8 0.4 3.2 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------