***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 5.4 6.5 4.2 1.4 62.6 60.7 1.8 4.9 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.3 5.8 4.2 1.6 60.5 60.8 1.7 5.0 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.3 8.0 4.3 1.4 63.4 60.2 3.1 6.7 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 3.7 4.5 2.9 2.4 74.5 69.7 -2.4 1.9 3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 7.6 7.5 3.2 2.0 68.2 65.7 2.6 5.0 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 6.9 7.0 2.8 2.2 67.9 67.0 1.7 3.9 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.5 4.1 1.6 60.9 60.9 1.5 5.0 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.0 1.3 3.3 2.3 71.8 68.5 -2.2 -0.4 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.2 8.1 3.8 1.7 64.5 62.5 3.5 6.5 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 7.4 7.5 3.6 2.0 67.0 65.2 3.1 5.1 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 8.0 7.9 3.2 2.1 69.3 67.0 3.3 4.9 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 7.9 9.2 3.3 2.1 70.0 67.9 3.1 5.1 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 7.7 8.3 2.9 2.1 68.4 66.8 2.5 4.4 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.5 4.3 1.7 61.9 61.6 4.2 7.2 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 6.3 6.8 3.4 2.7 77.6 73.6 2.0 4.7 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 8.7 9.3 2.9 2.1 68.2 67.3 2.6 5.4 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 4.6 5.3 4.2 1.6 58.2 61.0 1.4 4.3 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.3 5.1 3.7 2.0 65.8 64.8 0.8 2.5 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.8 4.4 1.5 61.4 60.5 2.8 5.8 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 4.5 5.4 3.0 2.7 75.0 71.0 -1.5 2.3 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.4 4.0 1.5 64.0 61.7 3.1 6.5 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.1 4.3 1.5 58.8 60.2 2.4 5.1 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.6 4.5 1.5 61.4 60.4 2.2 5.5 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 7.9 8.8 4.1 1.6 63.6 61.8 4.4 7.4 8.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 5.8 6.2 3.3 1.9 66.2 65.7 2.1 4.4 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 7.1 6.4 2.8 2.1 68.7 68.0 1.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 6.9 8.0 3.8 1.6 63.5 62.6 2.3 6.3 8.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 7.4 7.2 3.1 2.5 74.2 70.4 3.6 6.0 6.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 4.2 5.2 3.5 2.3 69.0 67.5 -0.5 1.3 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.2 4.3 1.5 62.1 60.7 1.7 5.1 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------