***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 7.6 8.8 5.5 2.9 83.3 81.1 2.1 3.1 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 7.2 7.7 5.0 2.7 78.6 78.2 2.1 3.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 9.2 9.3 5.5 2.6 76.7 76.5 3.2 4.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 3.9 6.0 4.7 4.4 93.8 93.3 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 8.7 10.9 5.3 3.8 88.5 88.1 2.5 3.9 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 6.9 9.8 5.3 4.4 88.0 86.8 1.9 3.6 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 6.8 7.7 4.9 2.8 82.0 80.1 1.4 3.1 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 0.9 3.3 6.4 5.1 93.5 92.3 -2.2 -1.0 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 1 99 100 9.3 11.8 6.2 3.9 90.3 88.9 2.8 4.9 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 7.8 11.6 6.3 4.5 90.9 89.5 2.0 4.6 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 8.4 11.4 5.8 4.2 90.2 89.7 2.6 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 8.8 11.3 6.0 4.5 90.4 89.7 2.5 4.7 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 8.7 10.0 6.0 4.1 86.1 85.6 2.6 4.5 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 9.2 10.2 6.2 3.5 82.0 80.0 2.9 5.2 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 5.4 9.0 6.5 5.1 97.9 96.9 1.6 2.8 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 8.5 11.7 5.4 4.0 88.5 87.7 2.7 4.9 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 6.5 7.0 4.8 2.9 81.8 80.5 1.3 3.4 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 4.7 7.3 6.4 4.7 89.4 88.7 1.3 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 7.7 8.5 5.0 2.6 77.4 76.5 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 5.2 9.5 6.1 5.6 96.9 94.8 -0.5 0.4 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 8.9 10.7 5.9 3.2 84.8 83.1 2.8 4.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 6.8 7.4 4.9 2.6 78.5 77.4 1.9 4.0 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 6.9 8.0 5.2 2.6 78.0 75.9 2.5 4.1 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 8.7 10.0 6.2 3.6 82.6 81.3 2.5 5.0 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.2 8.4 5.5 3.7 89.2 87.7 2.5 3.1 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 7.0 8.8 5.7 4.5 87.1 88.2 2.5 3.7 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 9.1 10.2 5.5 3.2 84.0 82.8 2.9 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 6.0 9.9 5.7 4.7 94.3 93.3 2.2 3.9 4.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 4.9 7.8 6.2 5.2 93.4 91.7 0.1 1.7 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 7.1 7.8 5.1 2.7 78.7 77.7 1.9 3.3 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------