***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 -0.5 0.3 -0.2 2.6 84.2 79.0 -3.6 -2.6 -1.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 2.8 86.2 81.3 -3.7 -2.4 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 1.0 1.8 -0.5 2.6 83.3 80.1 -2.1 -0.7 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 -3.4 -2.0 -2.3 4.0 94.5 91.0 -7.1 -5.7 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 -1.0 0.1 -2.5 3.5 88.8 84.9 -3.9 -3.2 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 -1.9 -0.9 -3.9 3.6 93.8 86.0 -5.1 -4.0 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 -0.7 0.2 -0.1 2.9 86.1 81.2 -3.7 -2.5 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 -5.8 -5.0 -3.3 3.7 88.3 84.9 -8.3 -7.0 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 -0.5 0.6 -2.0 2.9 85.1 80.7 -3.1 -2.6 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 -1.0 -0.2 -2.8 3.2 84.9 82.1 -3.8 -3.4 -1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 -1.0 0.4 -2.8 3.6 88.5 84.7 -4.4 -3.2 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 -1.7 -0.9 -3.0 3.6 88.0 84.2 -5.1 -3.5 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 -1.5 -0.4 -3.6 3.3 85.5 82.2 -4.7 -2.9 -1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 -0.1 0.5 -1.6 3.1 85.3 82.7 -3.0 -1.8 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 -0.6 0.4 -1.6 3.8 95.3 92.2 -4.5 -3.0 -1.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 -0.4 0.5 -3.3 3.7 90.1 85.3 -3.7 -2.1 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 -1.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 86.0 81.6 -4.3 -2.5 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 -2.8 -1.9 -3.1 3.3 85.1 82.5 -6.9 -4.9 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 -0.6 0.2 -0.3 2.8 86.0 81.3 -3.7 -2.0 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 -5.2 -3.6 -4.2 3.7 87.4 84.3 -10.0 -7.7 -5.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 -0.7 0.3 -1.0 2.7 83.5 79.9 -3.7 -2.7 -1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 -1.2 0.2 0.0 2.9 85.0 81.2 -4.2 -2.7 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 -1.1 -0.3 -0.6 2.8 86.3 81.6 -3.7 -2.2 -1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 -1.2 -0.6 -1.9 3.0 85.2 82.2 -3.8 -2.6 -1.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 -0.4 0.2 -1.4 3.3 91.5 86.1 -3.3 -2.7 -1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 -1.5 -0.7 -3.3 3.4 87.1 82.7 -4.2 -3.2 -1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 0.0 0.9 -0.8 2.9 87.3 81.4 -3.9 -2.1 -0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 -1.7 -0.6 -2.3 3.9 94.8 90.3 -5.1 -3.5 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 -3.2 -2.2 -3.5 3.6 87.5 84.2 -5.5 -5.0 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 2.7 85.9 80.7 -3.6 -2.0 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------