***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.4 1.0 3.3 87.6 86.8 -3.4 -1.7 -0.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 1.0 1.9 1.0 3.7 89.6 89.8 -3.6 -1.9 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 2.8 3.8 0.6 3.0 86.6 85.6 -2.0 -0.6 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -3.0 0.3 -0.2 5.1 96.4 96.1 -7.7 -5.8 -5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.2 2.7 -0.7 3.9 88.6 87.8 -3.5 -1.8 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -0.9 1.4 -1.6 5.2 90.6 90.5 -5.2 -3.5 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.6 1.1 3.9 90.9 90.3 -4.2 -2.0 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -5.5 -2.8 -1.4 4.5 87.7 87.1 -9.0 -8.0 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 1 99 100 1.0 2.9 -0.8 3.3 85.5 84.8 -2.9 -1.8 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 0.6 1.1 -1.2 3.9 86.4 85.4 -4.0 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.1 -1.0 4.1 87.9 87.6 -3.6 -2.0 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -0.3 1.0 -1.5 4.1 85.3 85.1 -4.2 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 0.1 0.8 -1.9 3.9 82.8 82.5 -4.5 -2.2 -0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 1.9 2.1 -0.4 3.5 86.6 85.9 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 -0.6 1.3 0.6 4.5 97.6 97.2 -4.3 -2.9 -1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.6 -1.4 4.4 89.1 88.9 -3.2 -1.7 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.4 1.2 1.1 3.9 89.9 90.7 -3.5 -1.9 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -1.7 -1.3 -1.4 4.2 87.5 86.0 -5.5 -3.3 -2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.8 2.2 0.9 3.6 89.7 89.6 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -3.4 -1.1 -2.0 4.9 84.4 84.0 -9.5 -6.8 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 0.6 1.8 0.0 2.8 81.7 81.9 -3.0 -2.0 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.3 1.0 1.1 3.7 88.6 89.3 -3.2 -2.3 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.2 1.6 0.5 3.4 90.2 89.2 -2.9 -1.9 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 1.1 1.4 -0.5 3.6 89.0 86.8 -3.6 -2.7 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.0 1.9 0.4 3.7 90.5 89.0 -3.0 -1.8 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.2 1.1 -1.3 4.4 85.1 84.4 -3.8 -2.8 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 2.0 4.0 0.6 3.5 87.2 86.4 -3.4 -1.4 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -1.0 -0.3 -0.2 4.8 95.3 94.9 -4.9 -3.3 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -2.1 0.6 -1.9 4.7 86.4 86.0 -6.0 -5.2 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.5 2.8 1.0 3.6 89.3 89.0 -3.5 -2.0 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------