***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 17.0 21.0 33.2 77.0 36.8 34.4 19.4 26.9 49.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 21.0 25.3 26.6 70.0 34.1 33.4 23.5 32.3 43.1 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 29.6 33.4 33.8 77.4 35.3 34.9 32.3 43.4 56.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 30.0 40.2 44.3 93.2 50.2 44.6 30.7 40.0 53.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 32.2 43.0 43.2 85.6 40.6 38.2 42.2 46.6 55.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 26.9 29.5 39.6 83.3 39.6 38.7 27.5 31.0 42.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 21.6 21.3 25.9 70.0 32.8 33.4 21.7 35.9 43.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 38.8 55.8 46.3 87.8 44.5 39.7 47.6 57.0 66.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 21.9 25.9 44.0 86.0 40.0 38.5 23.2 31.8 43.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 28.8 34.1 46.7 86.2 40.9 38.7 26.3 40.0 46.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 27.6 34.2 42.9 85.3 40.2 38.1 33.1 36.9 48.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 25.2 33.4 41.9 86.6 42.2 39.0 31.5 34.1 46.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 28.7 32.7 43.1 81.6 34.6 36.4 32.2 42.6 46.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 37.1 41.0 43.2 78.7 34.2 34.7 39.9 48.8 66.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 25.5 42.6 41.4 95.2 54.7 48.3 20.3 38.9 53.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 23.1 34.5 41.5 84.2 39.7 38.1 30.1 38.3 48.6 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 17.9 20.5 25.2 68.3 33.4 33.2 20.4 26.9 43.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 23.7 26.3 47.8 85.4 38.3 37.9 24.8 32.9 45.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 24.1 23.2 28.1 71.2 34.4 33.4 22.6 39.0 48.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 31.3 39.7 56.4 86.5 43.1 38.7 31.9 49.3 61.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 25.9 30.2 40.0 82.8 39.4 36.8 27.4 36.8 53.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 20.6 21.9 26.9 68.8 33.0 33.0 21.9 33.8 45.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 22.8 27.2 31.7 73.9 35.3 33.8 24.5 34.5 41.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 29.3 36.9 42.7 82.6 36.7 36.4 35.7 38.5 53.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 26.8 28.9 39.9 80.2 36.9 35.6 27.6 42.5 58.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 20.9 25.5 40.3 84.6 40.2 38.2 22.5 30.5 44.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 24.6 22.8 34.8 76.7 35.7 34.0 22.0 41.0 57.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 22.9 31.8 42.0 94.1 51.6 45.7 24.0 31.4 41.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 39.1 46.0 50.4 85.2 38.9 37.6 44.7 56.2 72.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 20.6 24.2 28.1 72.2 34.5 33.8 22.1 33.7 43.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------