***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 0.3 1.5 8.9 88.8 55.4 43.1 0.0 0.8 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 0.6 1.6 6.8 78.0 49.5 40.0 0.9 1.6 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 1.0 2.5 8.5 84.2 52.3 41.8 0.7 2.4 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.2 10.8 102.4 61.5 47.9 1.4 4.6 6.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.2 7.2 11.5 100.4 57.9 46.4 1.7 5.4 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 1.0 4.0 10.6 100.8 60.8 48.9 0.5 2.8 4.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 0.4 1.2 6.6 77.2 49.3 39.4 0.5 1.2 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 2.9 8.6 12.1 103.8 59.0 46.3 2.1 7.5 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.0 3.6 11.8 97.2 56.3 44.9 0.4 2.7 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 2.0 6.2 12.2 98.9 56.3 45.3 0.7 5.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 1.5 6.2 11.0 100.6 57.9 46.6 0.4 4.1 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 0.8 3.7 10.9 102.4 58.5 46.6 0.7 2.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 1.0 3.2 11.0 94.9 53.7 46.7 0.5 2.6 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 1.7 4.3 11.0 86.6 50.2 42.7 2.4 4.3 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.3 6.0 10.0 102.5 62.3 49.0 0.8 2.8 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 1.5 5.8 10.6 98.2 56.8 47.1 0.6 3.9 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.0 2.6 6.7 76.7 49.0 40.4 1.2 2.6 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 1.5 4.6 12.3 94.4 52.9 43.9 1.5 3.9 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 0.9 2.0 7.2 79.0 49.4 40.5 1.1 2.1 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 1.4 6.1 15.5 101.7 59.1 45.3 2.1 3.4 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.2 3.0 10.7 94.3 56.7 44.0 0.9 2.6 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.3 3.2 7.2 78.5 49.3 41.2 0.5 3.3 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 0.7 1.7 8.0 80.5 49.2 41.3 0.5 1.8 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 1.3 3.2 10.6 88.4 50.7 42.6 1.3 3.1 6.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.6 4.1 11.1 97.8 57.5 45.1 0.9 3.9 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 0.8 4.5 10.0 94.8 58.7 46.8 0.8 2.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 0.9 5.0 9.7 93.0 56.1 43.6 0.3 2.1 6.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.3 8.7 10.1 103.3 62.0 49.1 0.5 3.0 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 2.4 6.9 12.9 94.4 54.8 43.7 1.7 6.1 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 0.8 2.0 7.1 78.9 51.1 40.0 0.4 2.0 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------