***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.5 9.2 86.4 50.9 42.9 1.6 4.5 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.6 4.7 7.9 85.3 54.3 43.3 1.8 3.9 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.4 7.2 9.0 85.0 50.5 43.9 3.8 7.2 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.2 11.2 9.6 84.9 54.7 44.7 3.4 10.0 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.0 9.4 10.5 86.2 52.7 45.1 4.2 9.1 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.2 9.4 82.6 55.3 45.9 2.7 6.4 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.2 5.3 7.8 88.4 56.1 43.7 1.8 4.0 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.0 13.9 10.9 84.1 54.7 44.5 7.8 13.1 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.7 8.6 11.4 87.6 52.0 45.5 3.5 8.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.3 11.4 84.6 52.2 44.5 3.0 9.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.8 10.1 85.0 54.7 44.9 2.8 8.3 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.7 9.8 83.9 54.9 45.5 1.6 7.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.7 9.8 80.9 52.7 45.2 3.3 6.8 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.1 11.7 11.8 89.4 52.8 46.2 7.7 10.5 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.5 8.3 8.9 86.5 60.7 46.3 0.9 3.0 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.8 9.5 82.6 54.2 45.3 2.7 6.9 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.3 4.3 8.0 90.1 57.7 43.6 1.8 3.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.4 12.2 87.0 53.1 45.7 2.7 7.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.9 5.9 8.1 84.3 52.6 43.4 2.1 5.4 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.0 8.1 14.6 86.3 55.3 45.4 2.8 7.3 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.8 7.8 10.5 88.3 50.6 45.3 4.5 7.4 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 1.6 6.5 8.3 89.7 58.3 44.1 2.6 4.1 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.2 5.2 8.8 85.5 52.6 44.4 2.9 5.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.2 9.4 11.2 89.4 52.5 46.3 5.1 9.3 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.1 10.5 87.7 50.5 43.9 3.6 7.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.4 7.4 9.7 86.3 56.2 46.8 2.3 4.4 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 4.3 9.7 87.5 50.9 43.1 3.2 4.2 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.2 10.4 9.0 84.8 57.5 45.8 0.8 2.5 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.5 11.0 13.1 87.4 53.0 45.5 6.8 9.9 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.6 8.0 84.9 53.2 43.1 2.1 4.6 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------