***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 5.0 11.7 7.0 68.2 44.1 33.4 7.1 12.1 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 3.4 7.6 5.3 59.4 44.3 32.7 5.8 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 7.1 11.4 7.6 71.8 45.4 34.1 8.8 15.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.2 8.2 8.4 70.3 46.8 37.3 5.3 9.3 16.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 4.2 8.4 9.8 78.5 46.6 36.6 5.4 9.6 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 3.0 6.2 8.5 67.2 46.0 36.6 3.9 6.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 3.7 5.4 5.1 58.1 43.0 32.5 4.6 10.0 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 5.9 10.7 9.7 73.8 47.1 34.5 5.3 11.9 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 2.9 5.2 9.9 79.5 45.8 36.1 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 3.2 8.6 10.4 81.3 48.3 36.4 4.9 8.8 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 4.3 8.3 9.6 75.4 44.7 36.0 3.6 8.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 3.6 6.8 8.7 69.8 45.2 34.6 5.4 7.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 2.7 5.4 9.5 71.0 42.3 36.2 3.6 7.7 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 7.4 18.4 10.5 79.3 50.1 37.3 8.1 18.3 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.9 7.2 65.2 50.8 39.6 2.2 5.6 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.0 5.5 9.3 74.3 45.2 37.7 2.2 7.8 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 3.4 6.8 4.5 50.3 41.1 30.5 5.0 8.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 3.3 8.9 11.0 83.4 49.0 37.8 4.0 9.4 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 4.5 10.9 5.9 63.3 45.3 33.8 6.0 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 3.3 8.6 11.3 71.8 45.3 34.2 5.2 10.2 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 4.5 9.4 8.7 73.3 46.0 33.7 6.6 10.3 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 3.6 5.7 4.8 52.2 41.4 31.4 4.1 8.9 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 5.2 9.6 7.1 69.0 46.0 35.3 6.0 11.3 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 6.1 11.9 10.1 81.9 50.0 36.9 7.7 11.9 17.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.8 14.5 8.8 71.2 45.8 34.4 6.9 14.6 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.6 6.0 8.2 61.0 39.5 32.3 4.3 8.2 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 4.1 9.7 7.6 68.4 44.1 33.4 7.0 10.5 13.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.4 5.1 8.1 70.6 48.9 39.2 3.2 5.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 5.7 14.1 11.3 79.8 47.8 36.4 11.7 15.6 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 3.9 7.1 5.8 63.1 44.0 33.0 6.1 9.6 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------