***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.1 5.7 8.1 66.4 47.4 36.9 3.0 6.4 9.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 3.6 7.0 6.6 59.5 46.7 35.9 5.4 7.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.8 8.1 8.8 70.3 48.2 38.1 4.7 8.5 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.7 16.3 15.5 112.6 65.5 50.1 6.4 11.8 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 7.6 10.8 11.5 79.6 45.6 39.7 8.4 12.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 7.8 14.1 11.1 85.5 49.3 43.6 5.3 14.1 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 4.3 7.6 6.4 58.8 46.9 35.9 4.9 8.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 9.2 14.9 13.6 91.7 53.0 44.3 10.1 13.6 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.7 7.3 10.9 80.3 45.3 39.9 6.0 7.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 5.6 11.1 12.7 81.5 46.2 40.9 6.6 11.5 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 6.8 11.9 12.2 82.5 48.4 41.1 8.0 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.4 9.5 12.5 92.4 54.5 43.7 6.1 8.8 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 5.8 9.8 12.8 81.5 46.8 41.3 6.9 10.9 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 7.5 11.1 9.9 63.0 40.5 35.8 9.9 12.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.3 13.1 15.3 123.2 70.6 52.9 1.9 9.3 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 5.3 10.0 12.1 83.6 48.3 42.2 6.8 10.1 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.8 7.2 6.1 58.4 48.0 36.4 3.9 7.3 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.4 5.4 12.3 78.0 44.3 40.0 4.5 8.1 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.6 7.7 7.0 60.7 45.9 36.3 4.8 8.2 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.5 8.6 15.1 88.5 49.0 43.6 5.3 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.2 7.1 10.1 76.5 46.3 39.2 6.0 7.3 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.6 6.6 6.5 57.5 45.4 35.8 4.5 6.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.7 6.7 7.8 63.2 46.1 36.7 3.9 6.9 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.6 8.0 10.7 72.7 45.0 38.7 5.7 9.9 12.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 4.3 7.0 9.6 67.6 43.4 37.0 5.5 10.5 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 4.6 12.8 12.4 99.9 56.1 46.3 7.1 9.6 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 4.7 7.7 7.8 61.1 43.8 35.5 4.2 9.3 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.4 13.2 14.8 115.6 66.5 51.1 3.7 7.9 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.6 13.0 13.0 81.0 45.7 41.1 7.9 13.4 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.7 7.8 7.2 63.4 49.1 36.8 4.7 8.0 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------