***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.5 3.5 2.6 -0.3 43.1 46.5 2.3 3.9 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 4.1 3.4 2.6 -0.3 43.1 45.8 1.7 3.6 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 5.7 4.5 2.8 -0.5 41.9 44.6 3.7 5.3 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.9 37.3 40.8 -1.0 1.0 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 4.8 3.8 1.0 -0.6 42.4 43.4 2.9 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.7 3.8 1.0 -0.2 47.9 49.0 2.8 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 4.0 3.1 2.6 -0.2 43.7 46.6 1.5 3.6 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 0.0 -0.3 1.4 -0.2 47.1 48.2 -1.4 -0.2 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.0 5.0 2.0 -0.6 42.6 44.1 3.8 5.5 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 5.2 4.0 1.7 -0.4 45.2 46.2 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 5.2 3.9 1.3 -0.6 43.0 44.2 3.0 4.7 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.3 4.5 1.4 -0.3 45.6 47.1 3.8 4.8 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 4.8 4.3 1.5 -0.1 49.8 49.6 3.0 4.3 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 6.6 5.8 2.8 -0.4 46.0 46.5 3.4 6.1 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.2 2.3 0.6 -0.9 38.0 41.1 1.9 3.6 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.5 4.7 1.0 -0.4 45.8 46.4 3.7 5.0 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 3.6 2.3 2.6 -0.3 42.2 45.0 1.5 3.1 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 3.3 2.9 2.1 -0.1 49.9 50.0 1.6 2.9 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 4.7 3.9 2.7 -0.3 43.0 45.5 2.2 4.3 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.4 2.2 1.3 0.4 55.4 55.5 0.0 2.0 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 5.6 4.3 2.5 -0.6 41.8 43.9 3.4 5.1 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 4.4 3.2 2.8 -0.3 41.6 45.0 1.9 3.9 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 4.7 3.7 2.9 -0.4 43.7 45.6 2.3 4.3 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.7 5.3 2.7 -0.4 45.8 46.6 4.5 6.2 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.1 3.1 1.5 -0.3 44.4 46.1 2.4 3.5 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 5.1 5.0 1.4 0.1 52.1 52.3 2.9 4.9 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.0 2.3 -0.2 45.4 47.4 2.9 4.7 6.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.0 3.3 0.1 -1.0 37.0 40.2 3.1 4.2 7.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 2.5 2.2 1.9 0.2 52.1 53.1 1.2 2.1 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 4.2 3.3 2.6 -0.3 43.0 46.4 1.7 3.8 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------