***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.7 3.9 2.2 -0.5 40.9 44.1 1.9 5.0 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.7 1.6 2.1 -0.5 39.8 43.3 1.4 4.1 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.3 3.5 2.4 -0.6 40.3 43.3 2.1 5.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -1.9 -1.5 -0.9 -0.9 38.4 41.5 -1.7 -0.2 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.5 2.3 0.4 -0.8 39.9 42.1 1.9 4.8 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.6 3.7 0.5 -0.4 43.9 46.5 2.4 3.7 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.2 1.4 2.1 -0.5 40.0 43.4 0.9 3.6 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.5 -0.3 0.8 -0.4 42.8 45.4 -0.9 1.0 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.2 3.2 1.4 -0.8 40.2 43.0 2.0 6.4 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.3 3.0 1.2 -0.5 42.5 44.8 1.4 4.5 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.9 2.9 0.5 -0.7 40.8 43.2 1.7 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.1 4.0 0.8 -0.5 42.6 45.0 3.0 5.3 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.2 3.9 0.5 -0.3 44.2 46.7 2.0 4.3 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.2 4.9 2.4 -0.4 44.1 45.8 1.7 6.5 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.6 1.4 -0.1 -0.9 37.8 41.5 1.3 3.8 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.1 0.3 -0.6 41.8 44.4 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.4 1.4 2.1 -0.7 37.9 41.3 0.6 3.6 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.2 1.4 1.7 -0.3 45.3 46.9 0.4 2.5 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.6 2.5 2.3 -0.5 40.4 43.6 0.8 5.0 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 46.0 49.6 -0.7 2.3 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.8 3.0 1.8 -0.7 39.7 42.8 2.1 5.1 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 0.3 1.6 2.2 -0.7 38.5 41.4 1.1 3.6 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.3 1.8 2.6 -0.5 41.7 44.4 1.3 4.6 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.9 5.2 2.2 -0.5 43.5 45.4 2.6 7.2 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 4.3 2.4 0.7 -0.6 40.7 43.9 2.2 3.6 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.0 0.7 -0.1 45.5 47.9 2.1 4.4 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.5 3.4 1.8 -0.5 41.3 44.5 2.9 4.7 6.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.9 2.0 -0.5 -0.9 38.1 41.6 1.0 3.6 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.6 2.8 1.4 -0.1 45.4 48.1 0.7 2.9 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.5 1.7 2.1 -0.5 40.2 44.0 1.2 4.0 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------