***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.2 1.2 2.0 -0.9 40.4 43.5 0.4 2.9 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.5 0.9 2.0 -0.9 39.2 42.5 0.6 3.4 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.3 2.2 2.2 -1.2 37.8 41.7 1.7 5.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -1.9 -1.9 -0.6 -1.2 36.1 41.3 -2.3 1.4 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.6 2.2 0.5 -1.2 38.1 41.4 1.7 4.6 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.4 3.7 0.9 -0.6 44.1 47.5 1.4 4.6 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.2 0.9 1.9 -0.9 37.1 42.7 0.5 3.2 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -3.2 -1.5 0.9 -0.9 43.2 45.1 -2.6 -0.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.7 3.3 1.4 -1.2 38.3 41.7 2.6 6.0 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.0 1.2 -1.0 41.0 43.9 2.9 4.3 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.5 3.4 0.6 -1.1 40.6 42.8 2.5 4.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.1 3.6 0.9 -0.9 42.9 44.6 2.7 6.3 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.0 3.4 0.8 -0.5 44.7 47.6 2.6 4.1 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 2.6 3.2 2.1 -1.2 38.0 42.4 2.3 5.3 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.5 1.3 0.2 -1.1 35.5 41.3 1.0 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.2 4.5 0.6 -0.8 42.5 45.1 2.8 5.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.6 0.8 2.1 -1.0 37.1 41.5 0.3 2.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.1 1.9 1.6 -0.8 42.0 45.9 1.5 2.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.9 1.6 2.1 -1.0 38.6 42.0 0.4 3.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -1.8 1.6 0.8 -0.2 48.1 49.6 -0.6 1.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.8 2.5 1.8 -1.2 38.8 41.3 1.7 6.0 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.4 1.4 2.2 -1.0 37.0 41.3 1.2 2.9 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.2 1.2 2.3 -1.2 37.0 41.5 1.2 4.2 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.7 3.7 2.0 -1.1 39.0 43.2 2.6 6.5 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.0 1.3 0.7 -0.9 39.9 43.5 1.1 4.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.6 3.9 1.0 -0.3 45.6 48.3 2.1 5.1 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.7 1.9 1.6 -0.9 40.1 44.2 1.0 6.1 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.0 1.6 -0.2 -1.2 36.8 41.7 1.1 4.0 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -0.5 2.5 1.4 -0.6 44.0 47.3 0.6 2.8 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.9 0.6 1.9 -0.9 39.1 42.9 0.3 4.0 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------