***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 5.1 5.8 3.6 0.8 56.2 56.2 2.8 4.6 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.0 3.9 1.1 58.1 58.2 2.0 4.3 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.1 6.9 4.0 0.7 52.8 55.2 3.1 6.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 51.2 52.8 -1.4 1.0 2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 5.3 5.2 2.3 0.6 55.4 54.6 3.0 4.6 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.2 2.1 1.1 57.0 57.0 1.8 4.5 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.5 3.8 1.1 56.9 58.1 1.5 4.0 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 0.3 0.3 2.7 1.1 58.6 57.7 -2.8 0.0 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.2 3.1 0.6 55.2 54.7 3.0 6.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.9 2.9 0.8 56.2 55.6 2.2 5.4 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.0 2.4 0.5 54.6 54.5 2.9 6.0 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.1 6.8 2.5 0.9 58.0 56.7 3.2 6.6 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 5.9 6.5 2.6 0.8 56.2 56.1 2.7 5.3 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.9 8.3 4.3 0.9 57.2 56.2 3.0 7.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.1 3.6 1.9 0.3 51.8 53.0 1.4 3.4 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.1 2.1 0.7 55.4 55.3 3.2 6.9 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.3 4.0 1.1 59.2 58.7 1.8 3.8 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.5 4.1 3.3 1.2 57.0 57.7 1.1 2.9 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.2 4.1 1.1 57.4 57.9 2.3 5.4 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.7 3.7 2.8 1.8 63.5 61.6 -0.6 2.1 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.5 7.0 3.7 0.6 53.6 54.5 2.8 6.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.3 4.3 1.2 60.4 59.0 2.7 4.2 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.8 4.1 0.9 55.2 56.9 2.0 4.9 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 7.9 7.8 4.0 0.8 54.6 55.7 4.1 7.5 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 4.4 4.2 2.7 0.8 55.4 55.8 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.8 2.6 1.4 61.6 60.9 1.5 4.9 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 5.8 7.3 3.4 0.9 57.1 56.6 3.3 5.1 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.6 1.3 0.2 50.7 52.1 3.3 4.4 6.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.8 3.2 1.6 60.5 60.1 -0.2 2.5 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.3 5.1 3.8 1.0 56.2 57.7 2.0 4.8 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------