***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 4.7 3.0 2.4 -0.6 42.1 45.4 2.3 4.3 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.7 2.6 2.3 -0.8 37.7 41.7 2.5 4.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.0 4.0 2.6 -0.9 41.5 42.8 3.5 5.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -1.5 -1.2 -1.1 -2.0 30.5 33.8 -1.1 -0.2 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.7 3.4 1.1 -1.0 43.5 43.9 2.7 3.9 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.0 0.5 -0.8 45.2 44.5 2.1 3.3 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.7 2.8 2.4 -0.5 40.2 44.7 2.0 4.2 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.4 -1.0 1.1 -0.7 47.0 46.1 -1.8 -0.8 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 5.6 4.8 2.0 -0.9 45.5 45.1 3.2 5.0 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.0 3.8 1.4 -0.9 46.5 45.2 2.9 4.1 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.2 1.5 -1.0 46.1 44.5 2.5 4.7 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 4.9 3.4 1.2 -0.8 45.9 45.5 2.6 3.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.0 3.0 2.0 -0.5 48.1 46.9 2.7 3.9 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.8 4.7 2.6 -1.0 45.1 44.1 4.4 5.0 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.2 2.9 0.6 -1.8 32.2 34.3 2.9 3.2 4.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.0 1.1 -0.8 46.5 45.6 3.3 4.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 4.1 2.9 2.2 -0.7 38.8 42.5 2.1 3.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.1 2.6 1.6 -0.5 49.7 48.0 1.6 2.6 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.1 2.8 2.4 -0.9 38.1 41.3 2.7 4.6 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.7 0.7 1.2 0.0 51.8 51.5 -0.7 0.5 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.6 3.7 2.6 -0.9 43.1 43.6 2.9 5.0 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 4.8 3.2 2.4 -0.8 38.8 41.0 2.8 4.4 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 5.0 3.3 2.5 -0.9 39.6 42.3 3.1 4.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.8 4.9 2.6 -0.9 46.3 45.2 3.8 5.1 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.2 3.5 1.8 -0.7 43.8 46.0 2.7 3.8 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.7 3.8 1.2 -0.5 47.9 46.9 2.2 4.2 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.1 2.4 -0.4 45.7 47.2 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.7 2.6 -0.4 -2.1 29.8 32.6 3.1 4.3 5.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 1.8 0.7 1.7 0.0 51.3 51.5 -0.7 0.6 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.0 2.7 2.4 -0.7 38.0 42.9 2.3 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------