***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 -5.2 -4.8 -4.5 -1.2 31.3 40.7 -4.6 -2.3 -0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 -5.3 -5.1 -4.6 -1.4 30.5 38.3 -4.9 -2.7 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 -3.2 -2.6 -4.5 -1.3 31.5 39.4 -2.5 -0.4 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -8.6 -8.7 -7.7 -1.5 32.4 39.5 -8.7 -5.6 -3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 -5.2 -5.0 -7.3 -1.6 32.8 39.5 -5.0 -2.2 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -5.4 -5.9 -9.0 -1.4 36.0 41.3 -6.5 -2.6 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 -5.4 -4.7 -4.6 -1.5 31.0 37.9 -4.7 -2.5 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -9.5 -9.3 -8.6 -1.5 35.2 40.7 -9.6 -6.9 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -4.0 -6.6 -1.6 32.8 39.5 -4.0 -1.9 0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -4.7 -8.0 -1.6 33.4 39.5 -4.7 -2.2 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -5.2 -5.1 -8.1 -1.6 32.1 39.9 -5.0 -1.9 -1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -6.3 -5.8 -8.5 -1.5 33.8 41.4 -5.8 -2.9 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -6.8 -4.9 -8.8 -1.7 32.7 39.7 -4.9 -2.4 -0.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 -4.2 -3.6 -6.7 -1.7 31.4 39.4 -3.4 -1.8 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -4.5 -4.1 -6.4 -1.3 30.4 39.0 -4.0 -2.1 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -4.5 -8.6 -1.6 32.8 40.0 -4.4 -1.2 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 -5.2 -5.6 -4.6 -1.6 30.4 36.7 -5.2 -2.9 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -3.4 -5.7 -8.5 -1.4 34.9 41.6 -6.8 -3.9 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 -4.8 -5.0 -4.6 -1.3 31.3 38.7 -4.9 -1.9 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -11.3 -8.8 -9.1 -1.2 37.8 43.0 -9.7 -7.1 -4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 -1.2 -4.7 -5.4 -1.3 32.7 40.2 -4.6 -1.8 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -5.2 -4.7 -1.5 31.2 37.4 -5.2 -2.8 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -4.8 -4.4 -4.8 -1.3 32.7 39.4 -4.3 -2.3 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -4.1 -4.0 -7.0 -1.5 32.3 40.2 -3.9 -2.2 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 -4.9 -4.3 -5.8 -1.1 32.9 41.6 -4.3 -1.7 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 -5.8 -5.1 -8.5 -1.1 37.0 42.4 -5.2 -2.0 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 -5.4 -4.8 -5.1 -1.3 32.0 40.5 -4.4 -1.4 0.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -6.9 -4.9 -7.6 -1.6 31.4 39.1 -4.8 -3.1 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -7.3 -5.9 -8.6 -1.3 37.2 42.9 -6.6 -3.9 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 -5.3 -4.8 -4.6 -1.3 31.8 39.0 -4.6 -2.2 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------