***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 0.3 1.0 8.5 83.0 51.1 41.9 0.0 0.7 4.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 0.8 2.2 6.8 78.4 49.3 39.8 1.0 2.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.6 7.8 77.6 48.8 40.7 0.9 2.9 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.1 4.6 9.6 93.2 54.4 43.4 1.1 4.5 6.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.3 9.7 90.8 52.1 43.5 1.9 5.1 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.0 8.6 88.3 52.4 45.9 0.5 2.9 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 0.5 1.0 6.7 79.0 48.8 39.1 0.8 1.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.8 9.8 87.8 50.4 43.8 2.1 5.8 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.0 3.0 10.1 88.5 52.1 43.9 0.4 2.7 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.9 10.3 87.0 49.3 43.4 0.7 5.1 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.9 9.4 93.4 51.4 45.0 0.4 3.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.0 8.8 90.7 51.9 45.1 0.4 2.6 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.4 2.7 9.5 92.1 51.8 46.4 0.9 2.7 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.5 9.5 74.9 46.9 41.1 3.2 4.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 1.5 4.5 9.0 91.6 58.4 43.0 1.2 4.3 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.1 9.2 94.1 52.4 45.8 1.2 4.0 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.2 2.9 6.9 83.4 52.0 41.5 1.2 2.7 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.0 10.5 80.9 46.6 42.5 1.3 3.6 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 1.1 2.6 7.0 76.1 48.5 39.8 1.0 2.6 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 1.6 3.2 12.2 77.4 48.1 41.1 1.3 3.3 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.2 3.2 9.4 85.9 52.8 42.4 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 1.3 3.4 7.3 80.0 51.7 40.4 1.5 3.3 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.2 2.0 7.4 73.8 46.5 40.2 0.7 2.7 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 1.6 3.0 9.3 77.6 46.9 41.6 2.2 3.2 6.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.3 3.2 10.4 89.7 55.3 42.4 1.0 3.0 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.1 4.2 8.8 90.7 55.3 47.2 0.8 2.8 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 0.7 2.9 9.3 85.6 53.1 42.2 0.2 1.8 6.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.0 3.1 8.9 93.1 55.5 44.1 0.5 2.4 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 8.0 4.8 11.1 79.8 47.1 42.4 2.2 5.1 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 0.9 1.9 6.9 76.8 47.8 39.1 0.5 2.0 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------