***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.5 8.0 79.4 49.1 39.9 2.5 5.6 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.1 8.1 8.4 93.7 54.6 43.5 2.5 5.6 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.9 8.4 7.5 76.6 49.6 39.7 5.6 8.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.4 8.7 6.9 62.2 47.4 37.9 4.3 8.8 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 4.7 8.9 7.0 62.3 43.7 35.9 6.1 9.7 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.8 7.3 7.6 72.6 49.5 39.1 4.3 7.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.9 8.5 8.3 94.0 56.1 41.8 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 6.6 12.4 8.1 67.2 47.1 36.8 9.3 13.5 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.5 7.6 8.1 67.8 44.0 38.0 4.5 9.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.6 8.9 8.1 65.9 43.9 36.4 2.9 11.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.2 8.8 7.2 66.0 46.3 37.7 4.0 9.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.5 8.0 7.5 69.3 49.2 38.2 2.9 8.8 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 5.0 7.9 7.7 68.7 45.5 36.9 3.7 9.6 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.4 9.6 9.2 74.3 46.4 39.8 5.6 11.8 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.6 5.4 6.6 62.5 53.3 40.3 1.0 3.5 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.1 6.8 7.2 66.8 46.4 37.8 4.1 6.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.1 6.3 8.6 97.2 57.9 43.6 3.5 4.9 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.2 7.1 8.9 69.3 44.6 36.8 2.6 9.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.2 9.2 8.0 88.3 51.8 42.4 3.3 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 2.9 6.9 11.3 70.0 46.6 35.5 2.6 7.0 16.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.8 7.9 7.5 68.5 45.7 38.1 4.6 8.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.1 6.6 8.9 97.1 55.2 45.1 1.6 5.0 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.6 8.1 7.6 79.0 49.0 40.0 3.3 8.3 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.4 9.5 8.4 72.1 46.4 38.9 4.6 13.4 17.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.6 6.2 8.4 72.1 46.6 38.6 4.5 7.3 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.1 6.9 7.3 69.2 48.8 38.2 3.4 6.9 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.9 5.4 8.6 79.4 48.4 39.9 4.0 6.0 9.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.3 6.3 60.6 49.1 38.3 1.7 5.6 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 5.2 10.4 10.1 72.0 46.5 37.6 5.7 13.8 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.7 8.1 89.0 52.7 41.8 4.0 6.1 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------