***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.9 4.2 5.3 43.6 37.7 31.5 3.8 8.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.4 5.8 4.7 44.8 38.4 32.7 5.3 8.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 4.8 7.8 5.8 50.0 39.7 33.9 6.5 11.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 3.6 5.9 5.5 44.2 36.6 28.7 4.5 10.4 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 4.0 7.0 5.3 43.5 35.1 28.0 6.6 9.6 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 3.2 5.4 5.6 50.3 39.6 30.7 4.5 7.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 3.3 4.7 4.2 40.7 36.8 28.6 4.5 8.6 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 5.8 6.3 5.6 45.0 32.3 26.9 6.4 12.1 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.4 2.9 5.9 47.9 34.9 30.3 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 2.7 5.1 5.5 45.3 33.6 27.9 5.0 7.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 3.3 5.0 5.6 46.9 33.8 28.9 4.8 8.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 2.8 4.0 5.4 46.8 33.4 27.4 3.9 7.7 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.0 3.8 5.3 45.1 34.4 28.1 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 5.7 10.3 7.3 54.3 41.4 33.3 7.1 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 1.6 3.1 4.2 36.5 35.0 27.1 2.8 6.3 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 2.3 4.1 5.1 44.1 33.6 27.5 3.9 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.3 6.9 4.6 44.9 38.2 31.9 6.6 7.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 2.6 5.9 6.8 53.0 37.7 31.4 5.1 7.9 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 3.5 6.0 4.7 43.9 37.8 31.4 4.7 9.9 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 2.7 4.7 6.3 39.9 30.0 24.5 5.7 9.3 15.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 4.0 7.1 6.1 49.3 38.0 32.8 6.6 9.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 3.9 6.2 5.0 46.4 37.5 32.0 3.9 9.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 3.1 5.6 4.8 42.2 36.6 28.1 5.1 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 3.4 8.1 6.8 53.9 39.4 32.4 7.7 9.1 16.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 3.8 7.4 6.0 44.0 36.9 29.0 7.1 11.9 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 1.8 3.4 5.9 50.6 35.2 29.4 3.0 6.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 3.3 5.7 5.7 44.1 37.3 30.6 3.8 10.4 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 1.6 4.2 4.6 40.4 34.7 26.1 3.9 5.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 6.2 11.7 7.7 52.6 35.9 31.0 10.0 12.8 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 3.2 6.2 4.8 44.3 38.3 31.4 4.9 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------