***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.1 5.9 8.4 64.1 44.4 41.4 3.0 7.1 9.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.0 6.6 56.8 44.0 40.5 4.6 7.2 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.6 6.8 8.8 67.1 47.0 43.1 5.3 7.9 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.6 11.3 11.9 77.9 50.2 44.4 6.0 11.3 14.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.9 13.1 15.1 96.2 59.3 50.3 8.3 10.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 8.0 14.3 12.8 92.3 55.8 48.5 8.1 13.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.9 6.5 6.4 56.2 44.7 40.3 4.7 7.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.8 16.3 101.7 61.1 51.5 11.7 15.9 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.9 8.2 13.0 89.1 54.6 48.4 5.9 8.0 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.8 13.4 17.3 105.8 63.2 53.6 6.1 11.2 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.2 13.1 15.4 100.2 59.0 50.8 6.3 10.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.6 13.5 93.4 56.0 48.3 8.2 9.7 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.2 15.4 16.5 98.7 59.5 50.7 8.6 10.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.9 11.7 12.7 78.7 53.3 47.5 7.2 11.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.5 6.3 8.5 61.2 47.7 39.2 1.9 7.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.0 12.0 14.2 93.0 57.2 48.6 7.2 10.1 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.5 6.8 6.3 59.3 47.4 42.1 3.9 7.2 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.1 16.9 102.4 60.5 53.2 4.9 8.1 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.4 6.9 6.9 58.4 44.5 41.2 4.4 7.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.8 17.9 95.9 56.4 51.0 5.0 13.1 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.3 10.8 76.3 48.9 44.7 6.0 7.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.5 5.9 6.7 59.3 45.8 41.8 3.9 6.6 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.5 5.7 7.9 62.1 46.4 42.7 3.8 6.0 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.7 13.3 87.6 55.5 49.4 5.6 7.9 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.9 8.4 12.5 80.0 49.7 46.4 4.5 8.5 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.9 12.8 12.8 91.3 56.3 47.7 9.3 11.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.2 9.0 9.7 69.6 45.6 42.9 4.7 9.6 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.4 9.6 10.8 76.2 51.6 43.2 3.9 7.9 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.6 16.9 98.9 58.5 52.2 8.8 15.5 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.7 5.8 7.0 59.1 43.4 40.6 4.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------