***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 5.7 4.8 4.5 1.3 65.4 63.6 2.3 3.7 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 5.5 5.0 4.7 1.5 65.8 64.7 1.9 3.7 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 6.9 6.5 5.0 1.3 64.0 63.1 3.7 5.2 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.4 67.6 65.0 -0.8 1.0 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 4.9 6.0 3.0 0.9 62.1 60.4 3.0 4.2 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.9 2.0 0.4 57.5 55.5 2.7 4.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 5.1 4.5 4.6 1.4 65.0 64.2 1.7 3.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.6 0.1 2.3 0.3 57.3 54.4 -1.3 -0.2 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.0 7.2 4.1 1.1 61.9 61.5 3.8 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.7 3.1 0.6 59.0 56.9 2.8 4.7 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.3 6.5 3.0 0.7 59.7 58.2 2.9 4.6 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.3 6.5 2.5 0.4 58.1 55.0 3.8 4.8 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.3 2.3 0.2 57.2 53.2 3.1 4.4 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 7.6 7.2 4.7 1.0 63.7 60.7 3.6 6.1 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 5.6 6.4 3.8 1.9 73.6 69.5 1.9 3.4 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.9 2.5 0.5 58.6 56.6 3.8 4.9 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.9 4.5 4.7 1.4 64.5 64.2 1.6 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.2 3.1 3.0 0.5 57.7 55.9 1.8 2.9 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 6.1 5.8 4.9 1.5 65.4 64.6 2.5 4.4 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.3 1.2 0.0 51.2 51.1 -0.3 2.2 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.2 4.6 1.1 62.7 62.1 3.5 4.9 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 5.7 5.4 4.8 1.4 64.2 64.0 2.2 3.9 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.4 5.1 1.4 64.2 64.2 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.3 4.4 0.9 61.5 60.0 4.4 6.1 8.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 5.5 4.9 3.3 1.1 64.7 62.9 2.5 3.6 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.6 1.9 0.2 57.1 53.9 3.0 4.8 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 6.6 6.7 4.0 1.1 65.0 62.5 3.4 4.4 6.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 6.4 7.5 2.9 1.5 68.0 65.0 3.1 4.2 7.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.4 2.4 0.3 55.5 54.3 1.3 2.1 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.1 4.6 1.4 65.7 64.4 1.8 3.8 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------