***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 6.5 6.2 5.1 1.9 66.4 64.6 0.5 3.3 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 6.5 5.6 4.9 1.8 63.5 63.9 0.4 3.6 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 8.4 7.8 5.6 2.0 65.8 64.8 1.5 6.1 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 3.5 3.8 3.1 2.3 67.7 66.8 -2.3 1.0 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 7.2 7.3 3.9 2.0 67.0 64.9 1.7 4.5 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 7.3 6.8 3.6 2.0 66.0 64.8 2.1 4.3 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 6.1 5.2 4.9 1.7 63.6 63.6 -0.1 3.4 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 1.0 0.4 3.8 1.9 66.2 64.4 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 8.4 8.8 4.9 2.0 66.4 64.8 2.4 6.5 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 7.2 7.3 4.4 2.0 67.2 64.4 2.3 4.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 7.6 7.3 3.8 1.9 66.9 64.1 1.8 4.8 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 8.3 7.8 3.7 1.8 64.0 63.9 2.3 6.1 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 7.7 7.0 3.2 1.6 63.0 63.2 2.5 4.7 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 8.8 9.0 5.5 2.1 66.2 64.9 2.2 4.9 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 7.4 6.6 4.0 2.5 70.2 67.8 1.3 3.8 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 8.0 7.7 3.5 1.8 65.7 64.2 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 6.2 4.8 5.0 1.7 63.8 63.2 -0.1 2.9 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 4.6 3.9 4.7 2.1 67.2 64.9 1.4 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 7.6 6.2 5.2 1.8 64.2 64.3 0.0 4.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 4.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 67.1 64.4 -0.9 1.8 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 8.2 8.1 5.3 2.0 67.2 64.9 1.9 6.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 7.1 5.3 5.0 1.6 63.2 63.3 0.6 3.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 7.2 6.4 5.7 2.0 64.6 64.6 0.7 4.3 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 8.9 8.9 5.4 2.1 66.9 65.2 2.3 6.1 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 6.7 5.7 3.9 2.1 67.0 65.4 1.1 4.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 6.4 6.5 3.1 1.6 64.8 63.5 2.0 4.3 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 8.0 7.7 4.7 1.9 66.6 64.6 1.5 5.8 7.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 8.1 7.5 3.5 2.3 68.1 66.7 0.9 4.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 5.3 4.4 4.2 2.0 67.2 64.9 0.8 2.5 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 6.6 5.4 4.9 1.8 63.8 64.1 0.2 3.8 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------