***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 6.1 6.2 5.8 2.1 69.3 65.1 2.4 4.3 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 6.7 5.4 6.2 2.5 70.0 67.1 2.3 4.0 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 8.0 7.7 6.5 2.3 70.4 66.0 3.4 5.9 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 2.4 3.2 3.7 2.5 74.6 68.2 -1.0 0.4 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 7.3 6.7 4.4 1.7 67.2 63.7 2.9 5.2 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.9 3.3 1.3 61.0 59.9 1.7 4.5 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 6.1 5.4 5.9 2.3 68.4 65.9 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.0 0.9 4.0 1.5 63.2 61.4 -2.4 -0.4 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 8.5 8.6 5.5 2.1 70.2 65.7 2.9 6.3 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 7.2 7.8 4.8 1.8 65.9 63.1 2.9 4.7 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.9 4.5 1.5 64.1 62.3 3.1 5.1 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.0 4.0 1.3 62.3 61.0 3.2 6.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.5 3.8 0.9 57.7 57.6 2.9 6.0 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 8.4 9.2 6.6 2.4 69.3 65.9 3.9 6.1 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 5.1 6.4 5.5 3.2 80.5 72.7 1.2 3.0 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.1 3.8 1.2 62.0 60.4 3.3 6.4 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 6.0 4.9 6.2 2.4 70.2 67.0 1.9 3.5 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 4.8 4.5 4.8 1.8 64.1 62.7 1.5 2.5 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 7.4 6.5 6.4 2.6 70.3 67.4 2.7 4.9 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.2 2.7 3.0 1.2 58.9 59.7 -0.6 1.4 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 8.0 8.0 6.1 2.1 70.6 65.8 3.1 6.1 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 6.5 5.5 6.4 2.5 69.7 67.1 2.7 3.9 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 6.6 6.4 6.6 2.6 70.0 67.5 2.3 4.3 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 8.5 8.6 6.2 2.2 68.5 65.3 4.4 6.6 8.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.3 5.0 4.8 1.9 68.5 64.4 2.7 3.8 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.3 3.2 0.9 58.9 58.7 2.3 4.8 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.2 7.4 5.3 1.9 67.6 63.8 3.2 5.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.7 6.9 4.6 2.7 75.4 68.8 2.6 5.4 6.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.9 3.7 4.0 1.5 61.3 61.4 -0.8 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 6.5 5.3 6.1 2.4 69.2 66.4 2.6 3.8 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------