***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.0 3.2 2.6 -0.5 49.3 46.0 2.3 3.3 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.1 2.6 2.9 -0.3 47.0 46.1 2.3 3.3 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.7 3.9 2.8 -0.8 43.1 42.7 3.4 4.8 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 46.8 44.0 -0.8 0.0 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.1 0.7 -1.5 40.7 38.1 2.5 3.6 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 1.9 1.3 -1.6 -2.8 17.7 21.5 2.1 3.8 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 4.2 3.0 2.8 -0.3 48.3 46.0 1.8 3.5 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 -2.7 -3.3 -1.4 -3.2 14.8 19.2 -2.3 -0.7 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 5.7 3.9 1.8 -1.2 43.6 41.4 3.3 4.9 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.5 2.4 -0.3 -2.6 26.0 27.5 2.6 4.2 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.4 2.8 0.8 -1.8 35.3 34.2 2.7 4.4 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 2.6 2.2 -0.5 -2.6 20.5 23.4 2.9 4.5 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 2.1 1.6 -0.2 -2.9 18.9 21.4 2.7 4.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.3 3.9 1.9 -1.6 37.0 37.4 3.8 5.7 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 3.7 3.4 2.6 0.2 55.2 54.2 2.7 3.2 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.1 3.2 -0.1 -2.2 28.6 29.3 3.3 4.8 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.1 2.8 2.7 -0.4 45.6 45.6 1.9 3.5 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 1.4 1.1 -0.9 -3.0 22.4 24.3 1.6 2.3 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.5 3.5 3.0 -0.4 45.6 45.8 2.6 3.7 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 90 10 0 100 -1.7 -2.1 -3.1 -4.2 9.3 13.4 -0.7 0.7 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.0 3.5 2.5 -1.1 42.8 41.4 3.2 3.9 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.6 3.0 -0.4 45.6 46.6 2.3 4.1 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.1 3.7 3.0 -0.5 43.1 45.3 2.9 4.4 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.1 3.9 1.6 -1.9 33.2 34.4 3.9 5.2 7.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 4.1 3.3 1.5 -1.0 45.9 43.6 2.2 3.5 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 1.6 1.7 -1.1 -2.7 20.4 22.2 2.8 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.7 4.4 2.1 -0.8 45.4 43.3 3.6 4.9 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.8 0.8 -0.9 43.8 43.4 3.2 4.2 5.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 -0.7 -1.1 -1.7 -3.4 18.8 21.3 -0.7 0.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.0 2.9 -0.3 48.1 46.2 2.3 3.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------