***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 -0.5 -0.5 -2.2 1.4 54.1 58.2 -3.1 -0.9 0.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 1.6 54.9 59.9 -3.4 -1.3 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 0.6 0.9 -2.1 1.5 53.7 59.3 -2.3 0.2 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 -3.4 -3.3 -4.9 1.6 58.9 61.8 -7.7 -5.4 -3.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 -1.8 -1.7 -4.6 1.4 56.0 59.6 -3.2 -2.3 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -3.3 -3.7 -6.8 1.1 52.6 57.0 -6.7 -4.0 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -0.5 -1.8 1.7 55.2 59.9 -3.0 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -5.9 -6.3 -6.3 1.1 54.7 57.2 -8.6 -6.5 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 -0.4 -0.5 -4.1 1.3 53.9 58.6 -3.7 -0.7 0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -1.4 -5.5 1.2 54.0 57.5 -4.5 -2.4 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -2.1 -5.3 1.4 56.1 58.9 -4.9 -2.9 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -2.6 -2.7 -5.9 1.3 55.5 57.5 -6.7 -3.1 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 -2.8 -2.8 -6.4 1.1 55.1 56.2 -5.3 -3.3 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -0.2 -0.4 -4.4 1.1 52.0 57.6 -2.7 -0.5 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 -2.1 -1.1 -3.7 1.7 59.1 62.7 -5.3 -2.6 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 -1.7 -1.5 -5.9 1.4 56.8 58.7 -3.9 -2.1 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -1.2 -1.7 1.6 56.6 59.9 -3.4 -1.9 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 -3.6 -3.7 -6.3 1.1 53.3 57.1 -5.6 -4.2 -2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 -1.2 -1.4 -2.1 1.6 54.5 59.5 -2.8 -1.6 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -7.2 -8.1 -7.3 0.8 53.0 55.3 -10.3 -8.2 -6.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 -1.4 -1.2 -2.9 1.4 54.5 58.8 -3.8 -1.8 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 -1.6 -1.5 -2.1 1.4 55.1 59.1 -3.0 -1.9 -0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 -1.1 -1.3 -2.5 1.4 53.7 58.7 -3.4 -1.5 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -1.3 -1.3 -4.6 1.3 53.4 58.5 -3.5 -1.6 -0.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -1.8 -3.6 1.3 53.8 58.2 -3.5 -2.0 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -2.9 -6.6 0.9 52.6 55.0 -5.2 -3.2 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 -1.4 -1.3 -2.7 1.3 54.3 57.7 -3.3 -2.0 -0.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -3.0 -2.5 -4.7 1.7 59.1 62.1 -6.0 -3.6 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -3.5 -3.8 -6.6 1.0 53.5 56.8 -8.2 -4.2 -1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 -1.1 -0.9 -2.0 1.6 54.4 59.7 -2.8 -1.5 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------