***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 0.2 -1.2 -1.5 1.3 59.6 62.4 -4.5 -2.0 0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 -0.4 -0.9 -1.3 1.5 61.0 62.7 -4.7 -2.7 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 1.3 0.9 -1.4 1.3 60.0 63.2 -2.7 -0.5 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -2.9 -4.4 -4.1 1.6 62.7 64.6 -8.2 -5.0 -3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 -1.0 -0.7 -3.9 1.3 59.8 62.2 -3.6 -2.4 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -2.2 -5.9 1.2 58.8 61.0 -5.4 -2.6 -1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 -0.4 -1.3 -1.2 1.4 61.5 61.6 -4.5 -2.5 -0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -5.1 -6.3 -5.5 1.1 58.5 59.9 -10.0 -6.8 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 -1.2 -0.7 -3.4 1.1 56.6 61.7 -3.8 -1.7 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 -1.3 -1.8 -4.8 1.0 57.0 60.3 -4.0 -2.2 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 -1.0 -1.4 -4.8 1.1 58.9 60.5 -4.1 -2.4 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 -1.6 -2.0 -5.4 1.0 56.5 58.9 -5.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -1.7 -5.9 0.7 52.1 57.3 -4.1 -2.0 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 0.0 -1.0 -3.3 1.3 58.8 61.7 -3.8 -1.5 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 -0.4 -0.8 -2.8 1.9 63.4 66.3 -4.0 -1.9 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 -0.4 -0.9 -5.4 1.0 57.5 59.4 -3.4 -1.2 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 -1.0 -1.9 -1.1 1.4 60.6 61.9 -4.7 -3.5 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 -2.7 -3.0 -5.6 0.9 56.3 59.2 -6.6 -3.5 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 -0.4 -1.0 -1.5 1.4 60.9 63.2 -4.7 -2.2 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -4.2 -6.7 -6.3 1.2 57.5 60.2 -8.2 -6.9 -3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 -0.1 0.1 -2.2 1.3 59.6 62.9 -4.0 -1.7 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 -0.7 -1.8 -1.5 1.3 60.0 61.9 -4.8 -3.0 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 -0.6 -1.0 -1.7 1.4 60.0 63.4 -4.3 -2.3 -0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 -1.0 -1.8 -3.9 1.1 58.1 60.8 -4.1 -2.0 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 -0.8 -0.4 -2.8 1.4 60.3 62.7 -3.3 -2.1 -0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -1.8 -1.9 -6.1 0.6 52.1 56.4 -5.1 -2.1 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 0.6 -0.2 -1.9 1.3 59.2 61.5 -2.6 -1.2 0.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 -1.3 -1.3 -4.0 1.7 63.1 64.7 -4.4 -3.2 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 -2.5 -3.0 -5.8 1.0 55.8 58.9 -7.2 -3.3 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 0.1 -0.4 -1.4 1.4 60.5 62.8 -4.3 -2.1 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------