***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -1.0 -1.3 0.8 51.6 54.6 -4.3 -1.4 0.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 -1.2 -0.9 -0.9 1.2 60.1 58.5 -4.2 -1.6 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 0.3 0.1 -1.2 0.7 53.9 55.0 -2.1 -0.1 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -4.8 -4.7 -3.5 1.0 59.2 59.7 -7.0 -5.4 -3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 -1.2 -1.6 -3.5 0.2 48.6 51.9 -4.3 -1.6 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -5.8 -3.5 -6.1 -0.1 46.4 49.3 -5.7 -3.1 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 1.2 58.3 58.1 -4.0 -1.6 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -8.9 -8.2 -6.1 -0.5 42.2 46.5 -9.2 -7.0 -5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 -0.9 -1.7 -3.5 0.3 47.2 52.1 -3.4 -1.5 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 -1.8 -2.6 -5.2 -0.1 44.7 48.8 -3.9 -2.4 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -2.9 -4.5 -0.1 45.5 49.3 -4.6 -2.7 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -5.6 -4.1 -5.5 -0.5 41.2 46.3 -5.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -4.7 -4.0 -5.7 -0.7 37.3 44.8 -4.8 -2.3 -0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -1.6 -3.5 0.4 50.2 52.6 -2.9 -1.6 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 -0.7 -0.8 -1.8 1.7 65.3 65.2 -4.7 -2.5 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -3.9 -2.1 -5.1 -0.2 43.3 48.1 -3.3 -1.5 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -1.8 -1.2 -0.4 1.5 62.0 59.9 -3.6 -2.3 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -3.5 -5.5 -5.6 -0.1 45.2 48.4 -6.6 -3.9 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 -1.1 -0.9 -1.1 1.0 58.5 57.5 -3.0 -1.5 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -5.7 -8.3 -6.9 -0.6 41.6 45.2 -10.1 -6.5 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 -0.8 -1.1 -2.0 0.6 50.8 54.2 -4.2 -1.1 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 -1.7 -1.4 -0.6 1.3 61.5 59.1 -3.4 -2.0 -1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 -1.5 -1.4 -1.7 0.7 54.8 55.7 -3.9 -1.7 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -2.3 -3.6 0.4 50.6 52.3 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -1.4 -2.3 0.5 50.0 53.5 -3.8 -1.4 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -5.2 -3.7 -5.9 -0.7 40.4 45.1 -4.6 -3.1 -0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -0.8 -1.7 0.6 50.3 53.7 -3.9 -0.8 0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 -1.6 -1.6 -3.0 1.3 60.8 61.7 -5.6 -3.2 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -4.3 -5.6 -6.7 -0.5 41.6 45.6 -7.3 -5.1 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 -0.9 -0.6 -1.0 1.0 56.8 57.0 -3.8 -1.3 -0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------