***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 -1.8 -1.4 -2.1 0.5 56.3 55.9 -3.4 -2.2 -0.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 -1.9 -1.6 -2.1 0.6 54.9 56.0 -3.1 -2.2 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 -0.3 0.7 -1.7 0.8 58.8 58.0 -1.9 -0.7 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 -5.4 -4.5 -3.9 0.8 61.7 59.7 -7.1 -5.8 -4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 -2.4 -2.1 -3.5 0.3 53.4 53.3 -4.2 -2.7 -0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 -2.6 -3.4 -6.4 -0.4 46.1 45.6 -5.2 -3.0 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 0.4 53.1 54.7 -3.2 -2.3 -0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -7.2 -9.0 -6.9 -1.0 38.4 39.5 -9.3 -8.0 -6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 -1.4 -0.1 -2.7 1.3 61.3 61.3 -3.1 -1.8 0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 -1.8 -2.3 -5.3 0.0 48.8 48.8 -4.1 -2.2 -0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 -2.0 -1.6 -3.9 0.5 53.7 53.9 -3.8 -2.3 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 -3.1 -4.6 -5.8 -0.7 41.3 42.1 -4.8 -3.8 -0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 -1.9 -3.3 -5.5 -0.7 42.1 42.7 -3.5 -2.4 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 -0.9 -1.0 -3.3 0.9 56.6 56.7 -2.7 -1.3 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 -1.6 -1.4 -1.7 1.5 67.6 66.7 -3.7 -3.2 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 -1.3 -1.8 -4.8 0.0 48.8 49.3 -3.1 -1.7 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 -2.0 -2.4 -2.2 0.5 55.6 56.1 -3.0 -2.5 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 -3.6 -4.4 -6.0 -0.4 44.6 45.7 -6.1 -4.3 -2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 -1.4 -1.4 -2.0 0.7 56.2 57.0 -2.8 -1.8 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -10.6 -9.9 -8.8 -2.2 28.6 30.0 -9.5 -7.9 -3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 -1.5 -0.2 -2.0 1.0 60.4 59.2 -3.5 -1.9 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 0.7 57.1 57.6 -3.2 -2.3 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 -1.8 -1.5 -2.0 1.0 58.5 58.2 -3.0 -2.1 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 -1.6 -1.6 -3.3 0.8 57.4 56.4 -3.9 -1.9 -1.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 -1.4 -1.1 -2.6 0.5 56.7 56.5 -3.5 -1.6 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 -2.0 -4.1 -5.8 -0.9 40.1 40.7 -4.5 -2.6 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 -1.5 -1.6 -2.5 0.4 55.3 55.5 -3.4 -1.9 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 -3.3 -2.6 -3.5 0.9 61.9 59.6 -4.9 -3.6 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -4.7 -6.2 -7.4 -0.8 40.1 41.3 -6.8 -5.6 -2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 -1.5 -1.4 -2.0 0.6 55.5 56.2 -3.1 -1.8 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------