***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 34.7 34.9 45.4 101.0 55.6 51.6 22.9 27.4 46.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 37.2 38.0 39.3 99.3 57.0 50.8 25.3 32.9 43.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 46.5 47.2 45.7 103.2 57.6 52.7 34.7 42.4 55.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 45.5 45.9 51.8 105.5 59.2 54.3 30.6 41.8 51.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 51.1 52.3 52.9 105.7 60.8 54.8 42.8 47.6 54.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 40.1 39.4 46.4 102.9 55.1 51.6 30.4 35.4 45.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 39.6 36.9 38.7 99.5 57.5 51.0 30.0 35.6 43.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 62.5 62.4 56.8 106.7 60.1 54.8 51.3 59.0 65.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 36.0 37.8 52.9 104.4 58.8 54.0 25.0 31.6 42.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 44.4 45.7 55.5 104.2 58.4 53.6 29.6 40.9 50.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 43.7 46.0 52.0 105.4 59.5 54.0 33.7 40.0 49.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 43.9 43.3 51.3 105.8 59.3 53.9 30.9 40.1 48.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 47.6 46.1 51.4 103.5 55.8 52.1 38.0 44.3 54.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 55.3 52.4 55.0 102.4 54.8 51.3 40.0 50.5 59.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 46.3 46.4 50.8 110.8 62.7 56.8 29.9 43.6 47.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 44.3 46.8 49.9 104.6 57.3 53.0 32.6 41.2 50.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 36.2 38.7 38.2 99.2 56.3 51.4 25.6 31.4 43.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 28.4 39.5 57.1 103.0 56.6 52.8 29.3 35.1 42.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 43.4 42.5 41.0 100.6 57.8 51.4 23.0 40.6 48.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 53.4 52.8 72.5 105.6 59.1 54.4 36.1 48.6 60.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 40.3 43.3 50.2 103.8 57.6 53.4 30.5 36.5 50.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 35.8 38.7 40.1 98.8 56.6 51.4 26.3 31.8 45.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 33.6 36.1 45.0 103.7 59.1 52.7 26.6 30.8 40.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 36.0 48.4 52.5 102.8 56.4 52.0 37.1 40.3 54.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 46.9 43.8 51.8 102.0 55.4 52.2 27.9 42.4 58.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 37.7 44.2 50.4 105.4 56.0 53.8 27.8 32.7 51.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 38.9 40.8 47.0 99.7 54.0 50.9 25.0 32.9 58.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 37.9 39.6 50.0 108.6 61.2 55.6 28.4 35.2 43.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 52.5 68.8 61.3 102.9 56.5 52.9 49.5 66.4 74.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 42.1 41.3 40.7 100.0 58.2 51.2 22.8 38.9 43.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------