***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 3.1 3.7 10.8 95.5 59.8 51.6 0.4 2.0 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 2.8 2.9 9.8 99.6 58.4 52.4 0.9 1.7 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.5 10.9 96.2 58.5 50.7 1.2 3.4 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 5.6 7.3 12.9 105.2 62.4 54.2 0.8 4.3 9.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.6 12.5 99.3 59.4 51.8 2.3 5.1 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.7 10.1 89.8 57.6 49.9 0.6 3.0 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 2.7 4.2 9.7 103.1 61.4 54.0 0.8 1.3 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.8 9.3 14.2 107.0 60.9 53.2 2.0 6.7 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 4.1 4.0 12.7 96.1 57.4 50.6 0.4 2.7 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 6.3 7.1 13.5 99.4 58.3 51.4 1.2 4.6 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.3 12.0 99.3 58.8 50.8 0.5 5.1 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.1 12.1 101.5 58.6 51.6 0.9 2.6 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.9 10.9 91.2 55.5 49.5 0.6 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.1 12.6 91.1 53.7 49.0 2.4 5.4 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.9 7.6 13.1 112.6 66.0 56.0 0.6 3.2 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.1 6.2 10.9 94.6 57.8 49.9 0.8 3.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.7 9.4 101.4 60.7 54.0 1.2 3.3 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 5.6 6.2 14.0 98.6 57.9 51.7 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.4 3.6 10.0 97.1 57.3 51.0 1.0 3.2 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 5.9 8.7 19.7 111.7 63.2 55.3 1.5 3.8 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.1 4.8 11.8 94.5 58.6 50.2 1.6 2.5 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.0 9.8 97.9 59.9 53.0 1.4 3.6 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.1 10.5 93.7 55.6 49.1 1.3 3.4 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.8 12.2 93.3 55.2 49.7 2.4 4.4 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.8 3.9 11.7 93.1 58.7 51.2 1.1 2.9 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 5.3 4.7 11.6 97.6 59.1 52.4 0.6 4.2 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.1 5.0 10.8 92.7 58.8 50.8 0.3 2.9 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 3.8 5.3 12.2 106.1 63.6 54.3 0.2 2.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 7.5 7.7 15.3 100.7 58.7 52.7 2.4 5.3 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.2 3.4 10.2 100.0 59.5 52.4 0.8 2.3 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------