***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.1 8.8 10.8 100.0 61.8 47.9 1.8 5.6 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.0 8.8 9.3 97.3 61.4 45.6 2.1 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.7 14.0 11.1 104.8 63.8 49.4 5.6 8.2 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 6.6 15.8 12.7 112.9 66.9 51.4 5.8 11.4 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 6.4 15.3 13.2 114.3 66.9 52.5 7.1 12.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.2 12.8 120.1 72.4 54.5 5.1 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.2 10.8 9.0 95.2 61.4 45.9 2.7 7.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.5 22.2 14.0 111.8 66.3 51.9 9.2 14.3 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.3 12.4 13.8 113.8 67.2 52.2 6.9 9.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.8 14.6 14.5 114.5 67.6 52.6 4.7 11.7 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.2 12.9 13.1 115.5 68.0 52.3 5.3 9.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.9 14.2 12.8 114.6 67.5 52.2 5.4 9.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 5.5 16.7 13.3 116.6 67.7 53.6 6.1 10.8 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.9 19.2 14.7 111.0 67.0 49.6 6.6 13.9 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.7 15.2 11.8 110.6 68.2 49.4 1.6 6.6 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.8 15.1 12.7 115.7 66.9 52.8 5.2 8.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.2 11.2 9.4 97.5 62.1 46.2 3.7 4.6 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 12.7 15.1 112.1 66.3 52.2 5.1 9.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.7 11.1 9.8 99.9 62.3 46.4 2.5 8.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.6 17.0 101.2 60.9 50.9 4.8 10.3 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.5 15.0 12.7 111.5 66.8 51.6 4.7 8.7 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.1 9.9 9.7 95.8 62.0 45.9 1.8 5.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.1 11.8 11.2 105.9 64.6 48.3 2.3 8.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.2 17.7 13.8 112.1 67.1 51.4 5.7 16.5 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.1 12.4 12.5 105.8 61.7 50.3 4.5 8.8 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.0 13.0 12.7 111.5 66.0 52.7 3.9 7.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.7 8.9 11.3 100.1 59.8 48.1 4.1 5.9 10.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.6 16.4 12.3 115.5 68.7 52.0 2.7 10.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 18.7 15.7 107.7 64.5 51.5 8.1 14.4 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.6 7.7 9.6 97.2 60.0 45.9 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------