***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.7 12.2 14.6 116.4 66.2 57.2 3.8 6.4 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.4 15.4 12.2 108.9 63.3 55.1 4.4 6.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.4 17.9 14.3 118.8 69.4 58.4 6.6 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.0 14.0 14.1 107.9 64.9 53.1 5.4 10.6 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.8 15.5 15.6 118.2 70.1 56.7 7.1 9.9 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.3 12.8 112.6 65.4 51.7 3.5 7.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.1 15.4 12.1 108.7 62.9 55.0 3.8 9.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.3 20.1 16.1 122.7 68.8 56.9 7.9 12.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.2 11.7 14.9 113.2 68.3 55.0 3.2 4.9 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.3 11.9 15.5 117.9 69.7 56.9 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.8 14.4 113.1 65.4 54.5 5.7 9.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.9 14.1 116.5 64.4 53.0 4.0 7.9 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.8 11.9 14.3 117.3 64.3 52.7 3.7 6.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.4 21.1 17.2 126.8 70.6 59.7 6.5 11.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.7 10.8 12.2 100.1 61.5 51.3 1.1 7.0 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.9 11.2 14.3 118.9 65.7 54.3 3.2 7.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.7 10.9 11.6 101.4 61.7 53.9 5.2 7.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.7 10.7 16.8 123.1 70.4 58.9 5.3 7.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.9 12.7 113.4 65.2 56.5 4.3 8.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 16.7 22.2 128.5 71.1 59.4 5.0 11.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.9 13.5 14.9 113.3 67.5 56.3 5.6 9.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.0 13.5 12.3 105.8 61.6 55.1 4.9 9.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.0 14.6 14.3 122.7 69.2 59.5 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.2 14.2 16.0 122.3 70.1 58.8 5.4 9.1 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.0 18.2 17.0 118.5 67.2 58.4 6.5 10.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.4 12.3 14.4 117.5 64.4 53.9 3.0 9.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.2 15.2 15.5 116.7 66.1 57.4 3.8 7.7 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.9 9.2 13.1 109.1 65.6 53.4 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.9 20.0 18.6 124.9 70.1 59.3 7.9 14.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.9 17.0 12.8 113.2 64.9 56.3 4.9 7.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------