***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.1 9.1 89.3 53.0 49.2 4.6 7.9 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.2 8.0 89.3 58.3 49.6 3.3 6.2 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.3 9.4 91.0 56.3 50.0 4.7 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.8 12.1 96.4 62.4 52.9 7.3 12.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.5 15.0 11.5 91.2 59.2 50.8 9.0 12.0 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.0 10.7 90.5 56.4 51.6 7.4 13.6 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.9 7.9 88.9 54.9 49.0 4.1 5.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.6 16.3 12.5 87.5 56.8 49.3 13.3 14.6 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.4 11.5 94.5 59.7 51.8 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.7 12.1 86.9 57.2 49.0 7.1 12.3 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.8 12.5 95.0 62.5 52.4 8.4 10.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.6 9.8 12.3 92.3 59.1 51.2 7.6 9.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.4 12.9 91.5 57.3 51.6 9.4 12.5 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.7 12.5 10.6 80.4 54.9 46.5 7.5 11.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 18.2 13.6 121.0 70.5 59.7 3.2 8.7 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.7 14.0 11.9 90.9 58.9 51.7 6.7 10.6 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.2 7.9 95.6 57.8 50.8 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.1 11.2 79.6 51.4 45.9 5.3 8.9 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.7 8.1 8.4 90.0 58.5 50.1 2.8 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.3 13.3 13.6 81.3 51.4 47.4 7.1 13.0 18.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.0 10.9 95.3 58.4 51.3 6.5 9.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.7 8.2 94.2 56.7 50.7 3.1 5.1 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.3 9.1 90.9 58.3 50.2 2.9 5.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.2 10.4 83.5 54.7 47.5 6.9 8.5 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.8 9.8 10.6 87.8 54.0 48.1 4.4 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.0 16.3 11.7 95.4 59.7 51.7 5.6 12.4 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.5 9.4 86.3 52.7 47.8 4.2 9.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.7 15.1 12.5 104.9 66.1 55.5 4.3 9.9 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.4 16.2 11.6 78.9 50.7 46.0 11.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.2 8.1 8.1 87.3 56.7 49.1 3.3 6.4 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------