***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 1.9 2.6 2.2 -1.5 32.0 35.4 2.6 3.5 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.5 1.6 2.0 -1.7 30.6 33.7 2.0 3.7 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.0 3.9 2.5 -1.6 31.5 35.4 4.0 5.2 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 -1.3 36.6 37.1 -0.9 1.3 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.5 3.3 1.4 -1.0 37.6 39.9 3.2 4.3 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.6 3.4 1.6 -0.2 46.3 47.3 3.0 4.0 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.4 1.8 2.1 -1.5 32.9 34.9 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -1.6 -0.6 1.6 -0.6 42.4 43.3 -1.2 -0.1 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.2 4.2 2.1 -1.1 35.8 38.6 3.7 5.3 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.2 1.8 -0.9 39.4 41.0 2.9 4.7 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.1 3.4 1.7 -0.9 38.7 40.9 3.1 4.5 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.3 1.8 -0.6 41.3 43.3 3.9 4.8 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.3 3.8 1.9 -0.5 42.2 44.3 3.1 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 3.3 4.0 2.5 -1.4 34.3 36.3 4.0 5.9 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.1 1.9 0.6 -1.6 33.3 34.7 1.9 3.6 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.2 1.5 -0.7 40.3 42.8 3.7 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.0 1.9 2.3 -1.3 34.0 36.4 1.8 2.8 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.5 2.2 1.9 -0.8 40.2 41.6 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 1.9 2.5 2.0 -1.8 29.0 32.8 2.6 4.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.9 1.7 1.1 -0.3 46.0 46.2 -0.4 2.4 3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.7 3.7 2.5 -1.2 35.0 38.0 3.6 4.9 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 1.6 2.2 2.3 -1.5 31.5 34.6 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 1.4 2.2 2.2 -1.9 28.6 32.5 2.8 4.0 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.2 4.4 2.5 -1.2 36.0 38.0 4.3 5.6 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.7 1.4 -1.2 35.9 37.9 2.5 3.5 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.3 1.7 -0.2 46.6 47.2 3.1 4.7 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.4 3.5 2.0 -1.2 34.5 37.4 3.4 4.1 6.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.9 3.3 0.4 -1.3 36.3 37.4 3.1 4.3 7.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.9 1.9 1.6 -0.6 40.7 42.7 0.9 2.4 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.5 1.7 1.9 -1.7 29.9 33.4 1.9 3.6 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------