***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.1 2.2 2.3 -0.5 38.5 45.5 1.6 4.5 7.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.1 1.0 2.1 -0.7 36.8 44.4 0.9 4.0 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.4 2.2 2.6 -0.6 38.6 45.7 1.9 5.8 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.4 -1.7 -0.4 -0.8 37.9 43.6 -2.0 1.4 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.5 2.2 0.9 -0.6 40.4 45.4 1.9 4.4 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.2 1.3 0.1 46.5 48.7 1.0 3.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 0.6 0.7 2.3 -0.6 36.5 44.4 0.5 3.2 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.7 0.3 1.2 -0.2 41.7 46.8 -1.0 1.3 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.2 3.1 1.8 -0.5 41.3 46.1 2.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.8 2.1 1.6 -0.3 41.6 46.7 1.2 4.7 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 5.7 2.4 1.2 -0.4 41.9 46.2 1.7 4.6 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.6 2.7 1.4 -0.2 42.5 46.7 2.2 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.1 2.8 1.4 0.0 43.2 48.0 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 2.1 3.1 2.5 -0.4 41.9 46.5 1.6 6.1 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.3 1.4 0.2 -0.9 37.9 42.2 0.8 3.3 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.8 3.0 1.1 -0.2 43.8 47.2 2.4 5.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 0.2 0.7 2.3 -0.7 38.0 44.7 0.3 3.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.3 1.8 -0.2 41.7 47.1 0.8 2.0 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.4 1.2 2.3 -0.7 38.0 44.8 0.7 4.6 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.6 1.8 0.6 0.0 43.7 48.2 -0.7 2.0 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.4 2.5 2.2 -0.5 39.5 46.0 2.0 5.0 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 0.4 1.0 2.3 -0.7 37.7 44.8 0.7 3.3 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.1 1.7 2.7 -0.6 40.5 45.9 0.9 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.5 2.9 2.3 -0.4 40.8 46.6 2.0 6.7 10.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 4.9 2.3 0.9 -0.6 40.4 45.3 1.7 3.7 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.9 1.3 0.0 44.6 48.5 1.8 4.3 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.7 2.4 2.0 -0.5 39.4 46.0 2.0 4.3 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.7 2.2 0.0 -0.8 39.3 44.0 1.9 3.0 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.1 0.7 1.5 -0.1 42.3 47.3 0.1 2.5 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.0 0.9 2.1 -0.7 37.0 44.4 0.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------