***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 -0.4 0.6 2.4 -1.2 35.6 42.2 0.4 3.5 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 0.0 0.9 2.4 -1.2 34.0 42.2 0.6 4.1 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 0.8 2.1 2.7 -1.3 36.1 42.4 1.7 5.8 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 -2.4 -1.3 -0.3 -1.3 38.3 41.2 -2.0 1.1 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 1.5 3.3 1.1 -1.1 41.2 42.9 1.8 4.8 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.0 1.2 -0.6 45.0 46.5 2.2 4.7 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 -0.2 0.7 2.5 -1.1 35.8 42.7 0.1 3.4 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -3.1 -1.7 1.2 -0.9 42.8 44.5 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.7 4.5 2.0 -1.1 42.0 43.4 2.6 5.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 1.7 4.2 1.6 -1.0 42.8 44.2 2.6 5.2 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.5 3.4 1.3 -1.0 42.9 43.8 2.5 4.7 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.4 4.9 1.4 -0.9 43.2 44.2 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 1.8 3.3 1.2 -0.8 42.4 45.2 2.1 5.1 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 1.3 4.3 2.5 -1.3 42.2 43.2 2.8 5.0 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.1 1.9 0.4 -1.2 36.2 41.0 1.4 4.0 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 1.7 4.0 1.1 -0.9 44.0 44.4 2.9 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 -0.4 1.0 2.7 -1.0 37.8 43.4 0.4 3.4 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 0.7 2.0 1.7 -1.1 41.3 44.2 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 -0.1 1.1 2.5 -1.3 33.6 42.0 0.8 4.1 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.9 0.4 0.5 -0.8 42.0 45.3 -1.0 1.9 4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 0.8 3.6 2.4 -1.1 40.3 43.4 2.1 5.1 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 -0.1 1.8 2.7 -1.1 36.6 42.8 1.0 3.7 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 -0.2 1.5 2.7 -1.4 34.8 42.0 1.1 3.9 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.3 4.7 2.3 -1.2 40.9 43.3 3.6 6.1 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 0.2 1.9 1.0 -1.2 37.9 42.1 1.1 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.2 3.5 1.2 -0.6 42.9 45.9 2.3 4.2 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 1.1 3.0 2.0 -1.2 37.4 42.5 1.9 4.6 7.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.5 3.0 0.2 -1.1 39.7 42.2 1.2 5.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.1 1.3 -1.0 40.9 44.3 0.4 2.3 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 -0.2 0.1 2.2 -1.3 33.3 41.6 0.1 4.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------