***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.9 3.5 3.8 -0.4 46.0 46.5 2.3 4.2 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.5 3.6 -0.5 45.9 45.1 1.8 3.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.0 4.6 4.2 -0.4 46.1 46.3 3.3 5.2 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.3 0.8 1.4 -0.1 49.3 49.1 -1.3 1.0 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 4.9 4.1 3.1 0.2 52.1 51.1 3.4 4.0 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 4.5 4.7 3.1 0.8 57.0 55.4 1.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.1 2.7 3.7 -0.3 45.5 46.1 1.6 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -0.3 -0.5 3.2 0.5 52.7 52.9 -1.8 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 5.9 5.1 3.8 -0.1 49.9 49.0 3.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 5.7 5.2 3.5 0.2 50.8 50.8 2.1 5.1 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.7 5.3 3.5 0.3 53.0 51.5 3.2 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.9 5.5 3.4 0.6 53.5 53.5 3.7 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 6.0 5.6 3.7 0.6 52.6 53.4 2.7 5.5 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.3 5.3 4.4 -0.2 48.6 47.8 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 3.9 1.9 2.1 -0.7 42.5 43.9 1.4 3.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.0 3.2 0.5 53.2 52.8 4.1 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.7 2.7 3.9 -0.1 48.0 47.8 2.0 2.7 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 3.3 2.7 3.5 0.3 50.9 51.1 1.7 2.7 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.7 3.6 -0.7 44.8 43.8 2.4 4.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 1.9 1.4 2.4 0.5 51.8 52.6 -0.6 1.4 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 5.6 4.8 4.4 0.0 49.8 49.3 3.1 4.8 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.7 3.4 4.0 -0.3 46.6 46.4 2.4 3.9 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.5 3.7 -0.9 43.6 42.9 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 6.2 5.5 4.4 0.0 49.7 49.3 3.6 5.6 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.1 3.5 3.1 -0.1 48.8 48.9 2.7 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 5.1 5.6 3.2 0.9 55.7 55.8 2.4 4.7 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.9 5.1 3.6 -0.2 47.6 48.0 3.1 5.4 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 4.5 3.8 2.1 -0.2 48.3 48.5 3.0 3.9 6.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 2.3 1.7 3.0 0.3 49.4 50.7 -1.0 1.8 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.7 3.6 -0.6 45.1 44.5 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------