***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 1.2 0.3 0.2 -3.7 11.2 17.1 1.9 3.4 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 0.8 -0.3 -0.2 -4.2 8.1 13.6 2.4 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 2.6 2.2 0.4 -4.0 11.7 16.8 3.6 4.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 -1.8 -2.4 -1.4 -3.1 19.1 22.4 -1.7 0.5 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 2.3 2.0 0.3 -2.5 20.6 25.4 2.3 3.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.3 2.7 0.7 -1.2 37.9 39.1 2.6 3.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 0.3 -0.7 -0.1 -3.8 9.4 15.2 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.4 -1.8 0.6 -1.7 33.2 33.9 -1.8 -0.9 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 2.4 2.4 0.8 -2.9 18.4 22.6 3.1 4.1 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 2.7 2.3 0.7 -2.3 27.9 29.2 2.6 4.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.7 2.4 0.9 -2.4 23.0 27.4 2.7 4.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.9 2.9 0.8 -1.8 29.3 32.1 3.1 4.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.8 2.6 1.5 -1.8 31.3 34.4 2.7 4.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 3.1 2.9 0.8 -3.7 16.1 19.6 3.5 4.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 1.7 1.6 -0.2 -3.4 19.0 20.3 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.2 3.0 0.7 -2.0 26.4 30.8 3.3 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 0.9 0.1 0.3 -3.4 11.7 16.4 2.2 3.0 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 0.8 1.1 0.7 -2.0 30.1 31.5 1.2 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 1.1 0.7 -0.4 -4.5 8.1 12.7 2.5 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 1.0 0.4 0.7 -0.8 41.5 41.6 0.2 0.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 2.0 1.6 1.2 -3.1 16.4 21.1 3.2 3.8 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 0.9 0.4 0.3 -3.9 10.9 14.3 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 0.8 0.0 -0.4 -4.6 9.8 12.9 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 3.2 3.1 1.0 -3.2 20.4 22.5 3.6 4.7 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 1.7 1.3 0.5 -2.8 18.3 23.2 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.8 3.1 1.0 -1.1 37.4 39.1 2.9 4.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 2.4 1.9 0.5 -3.1 15.2 20.9 3.1 4.7 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 2.2 1.8 -0.6 -3.1 20.5 23.2 2.9 4.1 5.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 1.8 0.1 0.6 -1.6 34.3 34.9 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -4.3 8.1 13.8 2.2 3.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------