***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -2.7 -3.4 -0.4 39.1 46.2 -2.8 -1.4 1.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 -1.5 -3.4 -3.7 -0.7 35.5 44.0 -3.9 -2.2 0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 0.4 -2.3 -3.4 -0.4 35.1 45.4 -2.3 -0.4 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -4.4 -8.0 -6.2 -0.4 36.3 44.5 -8.0 -5.6 -2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 -4.7 -3.0 -5.6 -0.2 39.6 46.3 -5.0 -2.2 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 -3.2 -4.3 -6.9 0.1 45.7 49.1 -6.6 -3.9 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 -1.5 -3.3 -3.5 -0.7 36.5 44.0 -3.7 -2.4 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -6.2 -7.7 -6.6 0.1 44.2 49.0 -8.5 -7.1 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 -3.9 -3.8 -5.0 -0.1 40.2 47.6 -4.7 -0.7 0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 -1.7 -3.3 -6.1 0.1 42.6 48.5 -4.6 -2.2 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -3.6 -6.1 -0.1 40.4 47.2 -5.1 -2.4 -1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -2.5 -4.7 -6.4 0.0 42.1 48.2 -7.1 -3.0 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 -2.6 -3.8 -6.4 0.0 44.6 49.0 -5.3 -3.2 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 -4.3 -2.8 -5.1 -0.2 38.7 47.3 -3.0 -0.5 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 -4.9 -4.7 -5.2 -0.5 35.3 43.7 -5.0 -2.6 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -2.8 -6.5 -0.1 41.5 47.4 -4.2 -2.0 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -3.5 -3.6 -0.8 35.9 43.4 -4.0 -2.5 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -3.5 -5.0 -6.7 0.0 42.4 48.4 -6.5 -4.2 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -3.6 -3.8 -0.7 34.9 44.4 -3.8 -2.0 0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -6.9 -8.6 -7.2 0.3 46.9 50.6 -11.0 -7.9 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 -0.8 -3.6 -4.0 -0.2 38.9 46.7 -4.4 -1.4 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -3.4 -3.8 -0.8 35.3 43.8 -3.9 -2.6 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -4.5 -3.6 -3.9 -0.5 34.9 45.1 -3.7 -1.7 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 -1.1 -3.3 -5.4 -0.2 38.0 47.0 -3.7 -1.5 -0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -1.1 -2.8 -4.5 -0.3 40.8 46.6 -3.8 -1.8 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -2.3 -3.6 -6.4 0.0 44.4 49.5 -5.2 -2.8 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 -1.5 -3.3 -3.7 -0.4 40.4 46.5 -4.2 -2.7 0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -3.0 -5.9 -6.1 -0.5 36.1 44.2 -6.2 -3.6 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -3.0 -4.6 -6.8 0.1 44.4 48.9 -7.9 -3.8 -1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -2.9 -3.6 -0.6 35.5 44.6 -3.2 -2.6 0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------