***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 -5.9 -5.2 -3.3 -1.3 31.3 40.8 -4.6 -1.6 0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 -5.6 -4.3 -3.2 -1.1 31.5 41.2 -3.8 -2.3 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 -3.2 -3.1 -3.3 -1.2 31.3 40.9 -2.7 -0.3 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -8.8 -7.3 -6.2 -1.2 34.2 40.8 -7.3 -5.2 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 -5.8 -4.0 -5.5 -1.0 34.3 42.1 -4.2 -1.7 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -3.2 -7.0 -0.6 42.2 45.6 -5.2 -2.7 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 -5.4 -4.8 -3.0 -1.0 31.9 41.7 -4.6 -2.3 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -9.5 -8.4 -6.9 -1.0 38.2 42.3 -9.1 -7.3 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 -5.1 -3.6 -5.0 -1.0 35.0 42.0 -3.9 -1.3 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 -5.4 -3.8 -6.3 -1.1 36.4 41.9 -4.0 -2.1 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 -5.3 -3.9 -6.1 -0.9 37.9 42.9 -4.3 -2.0 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -5.7 -3.7 -6.5 -0.9 39.9 43.4 -5.9 -3.0 -1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -5.5 -2.5 -6.7 -0.8 41.5 44.7 -5.0 -1.8 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 -4.4 -3.4 -5.2 -1.3 33.3 40.3 -3.5 -1.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 -4.9 -3.3 -5.2 -1.1 33.6 40.5 -3.4 -1.9 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 -1.1 -2.6 -6.6 -0.9 39.7 43.5 -3.3 -1.4 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 -6.1 -4.4 -2.8 -1.0 32.1 42.1 -4.3 -3.2 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 -7.4 -6.0 -7.1 -1.3 35.1 40.8 -6.4 -3.6 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 -5.4 -5.4 -3.4 -1.2 30.9 40.4 -5.1 -1.8 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -10.7 -8.1 -8.0 -1.2 37.6 41.4 -9.1 -6.5 -4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -5.3 -4.3 -4.0 -1.1 33.2 41.5 -4.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 -5.7 -5.0 -3.2 -1.1 32.0 41.0 -4.9 -2.9 -0.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 -5.2 -4.7 -3.7 -1.3 30.1 39.5 -4.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -5.2 -4.1 -5.6 -1.3 33.5 41.0 -4.1 -2.5 -1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 -5.3 -3.3 -4.6 -1.2 33.1 40.8 -3.3 -1.3 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -2.0 -3.0 -6.6 -0.6 41.8 45.5 -5.5 -2.4 -1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -2.4 -3.7 -1.3 32.7 41.1 -2.4 -1.1 0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -6.5 -4.1 -6.1 -1.1 35.7 41.6 -4.3 -2.8 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -7.4 -6.2 -7.4 -1.3 34.6 40.3 -6.4 -4.4 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 -5.4 -4.6 -3.3 -1.2 30.5 40.8 -3.9 -1.5 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------