***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 -3.6 -4.0 -3.8 -1.8 25.5 34.1 -3.5 -2.3 -1.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 -3.9 -4.4 -4.5 -2.4 20.0 29.8 -3.5 -2.4 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 -2.1 -2.5 -4.1 -2.2 22.3 30.4 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -7.3 -7.1 -5.2 -1.4 28.2 36.2 -6.7 -6.0 -4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 -4.0 -4.0 -4.7 -1.5 25.7 35.8 -3.6 -3.0 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 -4.9 -4.1 -5.7 -0.3 40.0 47.1 -4.7 -3.6 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 -4.1 -4.7 -4.2 -2.0 22.0 32.5 -3.9 -2.4 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -10.0 -9.3 -6.6 -1.3 29.2 38.0 -9.2 -8.4 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 -3.4 -3.9 -5.4 -1.9 23.1 32.9 -3.2 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 -4.1 -4.3 -6.5 -1.8 25.2 34.3 -3.3 -2.3 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 -3.8 -3.5 -5.2 -1.4 27.9 37.1 -3.3 -2.6 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 -5.0 -4.7 -5.7 -1.1 31.0 39.8 -4.6 -3.0 -0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 -3.5 -3.7 -5.3 -1.0 32.2 40.9 -3.6 -2.4 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 -3.3 -3.2 -6.7 -3.1 18.4 23.4 -2.6 -1.4 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -4.3 -3.2 -3.5 -1.1 33.7 40.9 -3.2 -2.1 -1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 -2.9 -2.8 -5.3 -1.2 29.1 39.1 -2.8 -1.9 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 -4.4 -4.2 -4.1 -1.9 22.4 31.5 -3.6 -2.8 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 -7.0 -6.5 -7.0 -2.0 24.8 31.6 -5.6 -4.4 -1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 -3.7 -4.4 -4.8 -2.6 18.4 27.5 -3.3 -1.8 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -9.7 -8.9 -7.0 -0.8 34.9 41.4 -9.1 -7.3 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 -3.7 -4.3 -4.5 -2.2 21.8 31.0 -3.1 -2.2 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 -4.3 -4.9 -4.4 -2.4 18.3 26.7 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 -4.3 -4.9 -5.1 -2.7 17.7 25.7 -3.0 -2.3 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 -3.9 -4.4 -6.4 -2.8 18.4 25.5 -3.2 -2.1 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -3.5 -3.3 -3.5 -1.3 30.6 38.6 -3.3 -2.4 -0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -3.9 -3.4 -4.6 -0.1 43.4 48.0 -4.0 -2.5 -0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -3.6 -3.4 -3.7 -1.5 28.7 36.9 -3.4 -2.2 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 -5.0 -5.3 -5.0 -1.5 27.8 36.3 -4.8 -3.0 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 -6.7 -6.7 -7.7 -1.7 27.7 34.1 -6.6 -5.3 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 -3.8 -4.6 -4.3 -2.3 20.6 30.5 -3.0 -2.2 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------