***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 47.0 110.3 65.8 54.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 37.2 43.5 48.0 117.8 69.0 59.1 25.3 32.9 43.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 34.5 54.4 47.7 111.4 64.7 56.6 34.7 42.4 55.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 45.7 47.0 49.4 105.6 59.9 53.8 30.6 41.8 51.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 51.6 49.9 49.6 104.3 58.3 52.7 42.8 47.6 54.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 39.7 35.3 48.1 99.3 49.2 49.1 30.4 35.4 45.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 46.9 46.6 47.5 117.6 71.0 59.1 30.0 35.6 43.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 45.5 61.8 54.8 107.8 59.0 54.8 51.3 59.0 65.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 25.0 37.7 50.5 105.3 58.7 53.3 25.0 31.6 42.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 31.6 45.5 53.9 106.9 57.7 54.2 29.6 40.9 50.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 44.4 40.6 47.4 102.1 54.4 51.5 33.7 40.0 49.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 30.3 43.2 48.3 104.6 59.3 53.1 30.9 40.1 48.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 47.7 44.4 48.6 102.0 50.7 50.9 38.0 44.3 54.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 54.7 60.3 56.9 113.4 66.6 58.5 40.0 50.5 59.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 46.4 46.5 50.2 110.4 65.0 57.1 29.9 43.6 47.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 44.7 41.2 45.5 98.7 49.8 49.3 32.6 41.2 50.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 44.7 45.4 48.4 122.5 73.1 61.5 25.6 31.4 43.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 28.3 41.3 59.5 110.3 64.5 56.6 29.3 35.1 42.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 43.3 48.8 48.5 116.6 66.9 58.6 23.0 40.6 48.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 53.0 64.9 73.7 115.6 69.6 59.7 36.1 48.6 60.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 30.8 43.7 48.2 105.8 58.4 53.1 30.5 36.5 50.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 42.9 48.3 50.9 122.2 71.7 61.1 26.3 31.8 45.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 33.6 40.4 49.8 114.2 65.2 57.6 26.6 30.8 40.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 44.8 54.2 54.4 111.0 64.7 57.4 37.1 40.3 54.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 31.7 57.3 51.9 108.1 65.0 54.8 27.9 42.4 58.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 38.2 47.6 50.2 106.4 61.5 54.9 27.8 32.7 51.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 40.1 58.9 50.4 110.1 66.0 55.7 25.0 32.9 58.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 38.0 37.2 47.7 104.1 57.8 53.3 28.4 35.2 43.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 70.2 75.2 65.6 113.4 67.3 58.4 49.5 66.4 74.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 42.4 44.4 47.4 115.7 68.7 58.1 22.8 38.9 43.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------