***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.9 93.5 63.4 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 0.8 3.2 8.0 88.3 60.9 46.3 0.9 1.7 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.7 6.6 8.9 94.4 60.2 46.7 1.2 3.4 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.5 8.7 86.5 54.8 46.5 0.8 4.3 9.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.7 7.6 9.2 90.3 58.0 47.8 2.3 5.1 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.1 8.1 88.0 60.4 48.5 0.6 3.0 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.1 4.5 8.1 89.5 62.5 46.5 0.8 1.3 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.1 9.4 9.4 92.9 61.6 49.9 2.0 6.7 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.1 4.8 9.7 93.0 59.8 48.1 0.4 2.7 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.4 7.6 9.9 93.7 61.1 49.1 1.2 4.6 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.6 8.3 89.5 62.7 48.8 0.5 5.1 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.6 6.5 8.0 91.0 62.6 50.3 0.9 2.6 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.0 8.0 89.2 59.2 49.8 0.6 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 2.1 7.8 10.9 102.0 62.2 49.3 2.4 5.4 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.5 4.3 7.7 81.3 54.1 45.1 0.6 3.2 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.9 6.4 7.8 88.3 60.0 49.0 0.8 3.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.6 5.7 8.0 89.3 63.7 46.8 1.2 3.3 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.0 6.2 11.3 95.8 60.7 48.9 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.7 8.2 90.1 60.4 46.6 1.0 3.2 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 1.8 6.2 13.0 96.3 60.0 49.8 1.5 3.8 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.3 4.5 9.4 93.5 56.9 47.0 1.6 2.5 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.8 5.5 8.4 88.7 63.7 48.3 1.4 3.6 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.5 4.5 9.0 96.2 60.4 47.5 1.3 3.4 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 2.3 7.5 10.4 97.5 60.5 48.2 2.4 4.4 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.1 9.8 91.1 59.3 47.2 1.1 2.9 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.7 8.0 90.1 59.2 49.5 0.6 4.2 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.4 5.3 9.5 92.8 62.0 47.7 0.3 2.9 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.4 7.9 84.7 55.3 46.6 0.2 2.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 2.6 9.4 12.2 96.4 61.6 49.5 2.4 5.3 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.1 3.5 8.2 89.4 60.5 46.4 0.8 2.3 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------